2024 · Week 15

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

48·42

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -2.5

Total

55.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapLions
  • +0.186EPA / play+0.156
  • 47.8%Success rate49.6%
  • +0.298EPA / dropback+0.267
  • +0.029EPA / rush+0.021
  • 9.5%Explosive rate11.5%
  • +0.64CPOE+5.81
  • 45.6%Third-down rate48.1%
  • 75.1%Red-zone TD rate74.9%
  • 2.90Points / drive3.02
  • 0.8%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 7–1 since 1999

BUF have won 6 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. DET are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2DET @ BUF31–41BUF
2022 · W12BUF @ DET28–25BUF
2018 · W15DET @ BUF13–14BUF
2014 · W5BUF @ DET17–14BUF
2010 · W10DET @ BUF12–14BUF
2006 · W6BUF @ DET17–20DET
2002 · W8DET @ BUF17–24BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–DET
DETQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
BUFQ1 14:02773Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 10:5653Punt7–0
BUFQ1 7:44978Touchdown14–0
DETQ1 2:01970Touchdown14–7
BUFQ2 13:361080Touchdown21–7
DETQ2 8:151070Touchdown21–14
BUFQ2 3:01466Missed field goal21–14
DETQ2 1:43646Missed field goal21–14
BUFQ2 0:36528End of half21–14
BUFQ3 15:00470Touchdown28–14
DETQ3 13:113-5Punt28–14
BUFQ3 11:16837Punt28–14
DETQ3 7:03437Turnover28–14
BUFQ3 5:08523Touchdown35–14
DETQ3 3:31680Touchdown35–21
BUFQ3 1:41638Field goal38–21
DETQ4 14:02570Touchdown38–28
BUFQ4 12:0015Touchdown45–28
DETQ4 11:511280Touchdown45–35
BUFQ4 8:021062Field goal48–35
DETQ4 2:031470Touchdown48–42
BUFQ4 0:1200End of half48–42

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen23/3436220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook141057.52
Josh Allen11686.22
Ray Davis7152.10
Ty Johnson294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ty Johnson551140
Keon Coleman12640
Dalton Kincaid47530
Dawson Knox23420
Khalil Shakir67391
James Cook11280
Ray Davis22141
Mack Hollins1370
Curtis Samuel1210

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff38/5949450

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs8313.91
Jared Goff2136.50
David Montgomery540.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown14181931
Sam LaPorta7101110
Jahmyr Gibbs57831
Jameson Williams35371
David Montgomery44310
Tim Patrick48301
Allen Robinson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.58