Closing spread
DET -2.5
Total
55.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.186EPA / play+0.156
- 47.8%Success rate49.6%
- +0.298EPA / dropback+0.267
- +0.029EPA / rush+0.021
- 9.5%Explosive rate11.5%
- +0.64CPOE+5.81
- 45.6%Third-down rate48.1%
- 75.1%Red-zone TD rate74.9%
- 2.90Points / drive3.02
- 0.8%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 6–1 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.6 points. DET are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 23/34 | 362 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 14 | 105 | 7.5 | 2 |
| Josh Allen | 11 | 68 | 6.2 | 2 |
| Ray Davis | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Johnson | 5 | 5 | 114 | 0 |
| Keon Coleman | 1 | 2 | 64 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 4 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 6 | 7 | 39 | 1 |
| James Cook | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 38/59 | 494 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 14 | 18 | 193 | 1 |
| Sam LaPorta | 7 | 10 | 111 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 5 | 7 | 83 | 1 |
| Jameson Williams | 3 | 5 | 37 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 4 | 8 | 30 | 1 |
| Allen Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.36
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.58