Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Total
40
Model margin
+2.7est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.022EPA / play-0.140
- 41.5%Success rate37.8%
- +0.027EPA / dropback-0.137
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.143
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.7%
- -2.79CPOE-7.12
- 36.1%Third-down rate32.3%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
- 1.75Points / drive1.26
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 6–1 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.6 points. BUF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 22/29 | 208 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Riddick | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 1 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 7 | 9 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 7 | 8 | 146 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Andy Jones | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| T.J. Jones | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 13/26 | 204 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith Ford | 14 | 46 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Marcus Murphy | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 9 | 16 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Foster | 4 | 5 | 108 | 1 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 6 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Jason Croom | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Keith Ford | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
40.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.97
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.71