2018 · Week 15

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

13·14

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 39°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BUF -2.5

Total

40

Model margin

+2.7est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBills
  • -0.022EPA / play-0.140
  • 41.5%Success rate37.8%
  • +0.027EPA / dropback-0.137
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.143
  • 7.7%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -2.79CPOE-7.12
  • 36.1%Third-down rate32.3%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.26
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 7–1 since 1999

BUF have won 6 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. BUF are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2DET @ BUF31–41BUF
2024 · W15BUF @ DET48–42BUF
2022 · W12BUF @ DET28–25BUF
2014 · W5BUF @ DET17–14BUF
2010 · W10DET @ BUF12–14BUF
2006 · W6BUF @ DET17–20DET
2002 · W8DET @ BUF17–24BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–BUF
BUFQ1 15:001245Punt0–0
DETQ1 7:19530Punt0–0
BUFQ1 3:55622Punt0–0
DETQ1 0:111070Touchdown6–0
BUFQ2 10:45644Touchdown6–7
DETQ2 7:551077Touchdown13–7
BUFQ2 3:46419Punt13–7
DETQ2 2:21419Punt13–7
BUFQ2 0:57417End of half13–7
DETQ3 15:00526Punt13–7
BUFQ3 13:05939Punt13–7
DETQ3 8:0739Punt13–7
BUFQ3 6:57851Turnover on downs13–7
DETQ3 3:19732Punt13–7
BUFQ4 14:0230Punt13–7
DETQ4 13:2532Punt13–7
BUFQ4 11:43443Touchdown13–14
DETQ4 10:26745Missed field goal13–14
BUFQ4 5:5032Punt13–14
DETQ4 4:4133Punt13–14
BUFQ4 2:50732End of half13–14

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford22/2920810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Theo Riddick8475.90
Zach Zenner10454.51
LeGarrette Blount791.30
Brandon Powell144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Golladay781460
Levine Toilolo44280
Brandon Powell33110
Theo Riddick2390
Andy Jones2291
T.J. Jones1350
LeGarrette Blount0100
Zach Zenner3400

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen13/2620410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Keith Ford14463.30
Marcus Murphy11353.20
Josh Allen9161.81
Patrick DiMarco199.00
Ray-Ray McCloud177.00
Isaiah McKenzie144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Foster451081
Isaiah McKenzie67530
Jason Croom11250
Zay Jones16110
Keith Ford1170
Charles Clay0100
Deonte Thompson0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.9%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.3%

Expected total

40.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.97
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.71