Closing spread
BUF -5.5
Total
54.5
Model margin
+9.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play+0.300
- 45.5%Success rate41.8%
- +0.012EPA / dropback+0.597
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.263
- 10.4%Explosive rate14.5%
- -2.91CPOE+8.14
- 38.5%Third-down rate33.3%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 2.20Points / drive3.07
- 1.3%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 6–1 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.6 points. BUF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
74.1%
Expected total
48.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.65
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.87