Closing spread
BUF -5.5
Total
54.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Lions
- OutBlake MillerTKnee· DNP
- OutChristian MahoganyGHip· DNP
- QuestionableD.J. ReedCBFoot· Limited
Bills
- QuestionableCole BishopSKnee· Limited
- QuestionableT.J. SandersDEKnee· Limited
- QuestionableTy JohnsonRBHamstring· Limited
- LimitedTerrel BernardLBCalf
Win probability
- Bills
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.119EPA / play+0.175
- 49.6%Success rate49.0%
- +0.264EPA / dropback+0.296
- -0.083EPA / rush+0.013
- 11.1%Explosive rate12.5%
- +1.28CPOE+3.91
- 39.5%Third-down rate44.9%
- 67.4%Red-zone TD rate71.7%
- 2.76Points / drive3.13
- 0.8%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 7–1 since 1999
BUF have won 6 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. BUF are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DET | Q1 9:09 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 7:09 | 8 | 79 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| DET | Q1 3:42 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–14 |
| BUF | Q1 0:57 | 11 | 50 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| DET | Q2 11:48 | 13 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| BUF | Q2 5:03 | 5 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–27 |
| DET | Q2 2:52 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 7–27 |
| BUF | Q2 1:36 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 7–27 |
| DET | Q2 0:39 | 7 | 57 | Field goal | 10–27 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 74 | Touchdown | 17–27 |
| BUF | Q3 9:29 | 15 | 73 | Touchdown | 17–34 |
| DET | Q3 1:07 | 13 | 58 | Touchdown | 24–34 |
| BUF | Q4 10:53 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 24–34 |
| DET | Q4 8:25 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 24–34 |
| BUF | Q4 7:28 | 8 | 61 | Touchdown | 24–41 |
| DET | Q4 2:50 | 7 | 68 | Touchdown | 31–41 |
| BUF | Q4 1:42 | 2 | 1 | End of half | 31–41 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 26/38 | 327 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 16 | 52 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Sione Vaki | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 9 | 13 | 142 | 2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 6 | 8 | 61 | 1 |
| Sam LaPorta | 6 | 7 | 52 | 1 |
| Jameson Williams | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Sione Vaki | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 20/31 | 248 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 21 | 135 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 14 | 69 | 4.9 | 2 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid | 7 | 8 | 95 | 1 |
| Keon Coleman | 6 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 3 | 43 | 1 |
| Khalil Shakir | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| James Cook | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.71
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.93