Closing spread
BUF -10
Total
54
Model margin
+0.3est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.111EPA / play+0.073
- 49.0%Success rate45.7%
- +0.203EPA / dropback+0.173
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.070
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.5%
- +0.35CPOE-1.27
- 51.1%Third-down rate41.5%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
- 2.48Points / drive2.36
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 6–1 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.6 points. DET are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 24/42 | 253 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 10 | 78 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 14 | 72 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| James Cook | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah McKenzie | 6 | 10 | 96 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 8 | 15 | 77 | 1 |
| Gabe Davis | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| James Cook | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Quintin Morris | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 23/37 | 240 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 18 | 66 | 3.7 | 1 |
| D'Andre Swift | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 9 | 10 | 122 | 1 |
| Kalif Raymond | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 4 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| James Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 2 | 5 | 16 | 1 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.43
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.27