2022 · Week 12

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

28·25

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

BUF -10

Total

54

Model margin

+0.3est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapLions
  • +0.111EPA / play+0.073
  • 49.0%Success rate45.7%
  • +0.203EPA / dropback+0.173
  • -0.064EPA / rush-0.070
  • 9.3%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +0.35CPOE-1.27
  • 51.1%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
  • 2.48Points / drive2.36
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 7–1 since 1999

BUF have won 6 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. DET are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2DET @ BUF31–41BUF
2024 · W15BUF @ DET48–42BUF
2018 · W15DET @ BUF13–14BUF
2014 · W5BUF @ DET17–14BUF
2010 · W10DET @ BUF12–14BUF
2006 · W6BUF @ DET17–20DET
2002 · W8DET @ BUF17–24BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–DET
DETQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
BUFQ1 14:0233Punt0–0
DETQ1 13:011353Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 6:441075Touchdown7–7
DETQ1 1:58731Turnover7–7
BUFQ2 13:231058Touchdown14–7
DETQ2 7:551671Touchdown14–14
BUFQ2 1:52947Field goal17–14
BUFQ3 15:001256Turnover17–14
DETQ3 9:553-8Safety19–14
BUFQ3 9:05410Punt19–14
DETQ3 6:45875Missed field goal19–14
BUFQ3 1:5730Punt19–14
DETQ3 0:56622Touchdown19–22
BUFQ4 13:47822Punt19–22
DETQ4 10:34535Punt19–22
BUFQ4 8:591582Touchdown25–22
DETQ4 2:40947Field goal25–25
BUFQ4 0:23348Field goal28–25
DETQ4 0:0200Turnover28–25

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen24/4225321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen10787.81
Devin Singletary14725.10
Isaiah McKenzie273.50
James Cook242.00
Nyheim Hines133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isaiah McKenzie610961
Stefon Diggs815771
Gabe Davis45380
Dawson Knox22170
James Cook25140
Devin Singletary1180
Quintin Morris1130

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff23/3724020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams18663.71
D'Andre Swift5193.80
Amon-Ra St. Brown177.00
Justin Jackson441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown9101221
Kalif Raymond46350
D'Andre Swift48240
James Mitchell11220
DJ Chark25161
Justin Jackson12150
Brock Wright2360

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -102.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.66%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.8%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.43
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.27