2014 · Week 5

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Kyle Orton

17·14

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -4.5

Total

43

Model margin

+3.4est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapLions
  • -0.076EPA / play-0.006
  • 41.0%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.029EPA / dropback+0.074
  • -0.158EPA / rush-0.159
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -1.80CPOE-4.76
  • 37.3%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 51.7%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.48Points / drive1.79
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 7–1 since 1999

BUF have won 6 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. DET are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2DET @ BUF31–41BUF
2024 · W15BUF @ DET48–42BUF
2022 · W12BUF @ DET28–25BUF
2018 · W15DET @ BUF13–14BUF
2010 · W10DET @ BUF12–14BUF
2006 · W6BUF @ DET17–20DET
2002 · W8DET @ BUF17–24BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–DET
BUFQ1 15:00515Punt0–0
DETQ1 11:5533Punt0–0
BUFQ1 9:493-2Punt0–0
DETQ1 7:0536Punt0–0
BUFQ1 5:3339Punt0–0
DETQ1 3:43757Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 0:05418Opp touchdown0–14
BUFQ2 13:4432Punt0–14
DETQ2 11:0922Turnover0–14
BUFQ2 10:21754Field goal3–14
DETQ2 6:431224Punt3–14
BUFQ2 2:083-1Punt3–14
DETQ2 1:4034Punt3–14
BUFQ2 0:47422Punt3–14
DETQ2 0:1300End of half3–14
DETQ3 15:00654Missed field goal3–14
BUFQ3 11:42734Missed field goal3–14
DETQ3 8:41636Missed field goal3–14
BUFQ3 5:05841Field goal6–14
DETQ3 1:2366Punt6–14
BUFQ4 13:191072Touchdown14–14
DETQ4 9:2338Punt14–14
BUFQ4 7:20738Punt14–14
DETQ4 2:5759Punt14–14
BUFQ4 1:47421Punt14–14
DETQ4 1:02457Missed field goal14–14
BUFQ4 0:21220Field goal17–14
DETQ4 0:0418Turnover17–14

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton30/4330811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson10494.90
C.J. Spiller1080.80
Kyle Orton100.00
Marquise Goodwin1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammy Watkins712870
Fred Jackson79580
Marquise Goodwin11420
Robert Woods34370
Chris Hogan22270
C.J. Spiller34250
Scott Chandler46210
Mike Williams1280
Chris Gragg1121

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford18/3123111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
George Winn11484.40
Reggie Bush6132.20
Matthew Stafford382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate791341
Reggie Bush25300
Corey Fuller34270
Jeremy Ross12130
Brandon Pettigrew23120
Eric Ebron2480
Calvin Johnson1170
Ryan Broyles0100
George Winn0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.1%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.90
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.38