Closing spread
DET -4.5
Total
43
Model margin
+3.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play-0.006
- 41.0%Success rate41.8%
- -0.029EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.159
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.1%
- -1.80CPOE-4.76
- 37.3%Third-down rate38.3%
- 51.7%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.48Points / drive1.79
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 6–1 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.6 points. DET are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 30/43 | 308 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 10 | 8 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Watkins | 7 | 12 | 87 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 7 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 1 | 42 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 4 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Gragg | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 18/31 | 231 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Winn | 11 | 48 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 7 | 9 | 134 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Corey Fuller | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Ryan Broyles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| George Winn | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.90
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.38