Closing spread
BUF -1.5
Total
45
Model margin
+0.5est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play-0.106
- 40.5%Success rate40.1%
- +0.013EPA / dropback-0.089
- -0.145EPA / rush-0.132
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.1%
- -3.37CPOE-1.94
- 40.4%Third-down rate38.1%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.59Points / drive1.49
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 6–1 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.6 points. BUF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 29/50 | 323 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahvid Best | 17 | 35 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 10 | 14 | 128 | 1 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 4 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 4 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 3 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Jahvid Best | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 12/24 | 146 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 25 | 133 | 5.3 | 1 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Quinton Ganther | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Evans | 2 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 6 | 7 | 37 | 1 |
| Steve Johnson | 3 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Donald Jones | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.52