2010 · Week 10

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Shaun Hill

12·14

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroplay · 58°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

BUF -1.5

Total

45

Model margin

+0.5est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBills
  • -0.043EPA / play-0.106
  • 40.5%Success rate40.1%
  • +0.013EPA / dropback-0.089
  • -0.145EPA / rush-0.132
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -3.37CPOE-1.94
  • 40.4%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 72.0%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.49
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 7–1 since 1999

BUF have won 6 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. BUF are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2DET @ BUF31–41BUF
2024 · W15BUF @ DET48–42BUF
2022 · W12BUF @ DET28–25BUF
2018 · W15DET @ BUF13–14BUF
2014 · W5BUF @ DET17–14BUF
2006 · W6BUF @ DET17–20DET
2002 · W8DET @ BUF17–24BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–BUF
DETQ1 15:00621Punt0–0
BUFQ1 11:52731Punt0–0
DETQ1 8:56410Punt0–0
BUFQ1 6:59722Turnover on downs0–0
DETQ1 3:34752Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 0:17557Touchdown0–7
DETQ2 13:10828Punt0–7
BUFQ2 9:2438Turnover0–7
DETQ2 8:17924Punt0–7
BUFQ2 3:2336Punt0–7
DETQ2 2:3537Punt0–7
BUFQ2 1:4634Punt0–7
DETQ2 0:39623Field goal3–7
BUFQ3 15:00673Touchdown3–14
DETQ3 11:2632Punt3–14
BUFQ3 10:0038Punt3–14
DETQ3 7:56616Punt3–14
BUFQ3 5:403-2Punt3–14
DETQ3 4:57310Punt3–14
BUFQ3 3:20542Missed field goal3–14
DETQ3 0:05538Missed field goal3–14
BUFQ4 12:45713Punt3–14
DETQ4 8:37666Field goal6–14
BUFQ4 5:53627Punt6–14
DETQ4 3:451593Touchdown12–14
BUFQ4 0:1400End of half12–14

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shaun Hill29/5032311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahvid Best17352.10
Kevin Smith6193.20
Nate Burleson11717.00
Shaun Hill111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson10141281
Brandon Pettigrew48500
Nate Burleson48470
Kevin Smith34410
Tony Scheffler38340
Jahvid Best4540
Bryant Johnson0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick12/2414610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson251335.31
C.J. Spiller2147.00
Quinton Ganther420.50
Ryan Fitzpatrick1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lee Evans25520
Fred Jackson67371
Steve Johnson38370
Donald Jones14200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.5%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.52