Closing spread
PIT -6.5
Total
37
Model margin
+3.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play+0.004
- 41.1%Success rate43.1%
- +0.031EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.085
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.2%
- +3.07CPOE+1.04
- 41.1%Third-down rate43.2%
- 57.2%Red-zone TD rate48.8%
- 1.66Points / drive1.68
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. PIT are 6-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 16/32 | 162 | 0 | 1 |
| Brodie Croyle | 3/7 | 23 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 15 | 26 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Derrick Ross | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Ronnie Cruz | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 16/19 | 238 | 2 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 1/1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 21 | 109 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Najeh Davenport | 12 | 78 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Santonio Holmes | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
4.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.81
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.37