Closing spread
NYJ -2
Total
36
Model margin
+3.5est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.103EPA / play-0.019
- 41.6%Success rate43.0%
- -0.081EPA / dropback+0.057
- -0.139EPA / rush-0.110
- 7.2%Explosive rate6.5%
- -1.62CPOE+2.38
- 37.7%Third-down rate44.6%
- 45.8%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
- 1.19Points / drive1.74
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. NYJ are 28-23-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 27/43 | 266 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 22 | 127 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Sammy Morris | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 17/29 | 175 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Washington | 11 | 58 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 13 | 45 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.88
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.45