Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
41
Model margin
+2.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play-0.050
- 45.6%Success rate39.9%
- -0.017EPA / dropback-0.078
- -0.017EPA / rush-0.021
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.3%
- -3.95CPOE-2.80
- 38.8%Third-down rate36.3%
- 62.8%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.77Points / drive1.44
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 8–6 since 1999
ATL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. ATL are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 17/30 | 180 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 26 | 185 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Mike Jennings | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 14/27 | 154 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 14 | 146 | 10.4 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 8 | 68 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Jerious Norwood | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.80
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.32