Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.046EPA / play+0.050
- 43.6%Success rate44.0%
- +0.130EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.143
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.4%
- +1.80CPOE+1.53
- 45.0%Third-down rate38.3%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
- 1.86Points / drive1.84
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 8–6 since 1999
ATL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. NYG are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 24/41 | 199 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 15 | 41 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 7 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 5 | 12 | 52 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 4 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 23/32 | 277 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 14 | 92 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 14 | 63 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Nicks | 6 | 9 | 115 | 2 |
| Mario Manningham | 4 | 5 | 68 | 1 |
| Victor Cruz | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 5 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Jake Ballard | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.62