2012 · Week 15

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

0·34

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -1

Total

50

Model margin

+4.2est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.086EPA / play+0.091
  • 46.8%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback+0.234
  • -0.000EPA / rush-0.192
  • 10.8%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +0.81CPOE+5.71
  • 41.8%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 57.2%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 2.27Points / drive2.31
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 8–6 since 1999

ATL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. ATL are 8-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W16NYG @ ATL7–34ATL
2021 · W3ATL @ NYG17–14ATL
2018 · W7NYG @ ATL20–23ATL
2015 · W2ATL @ NYG24–20ATL
2014 · W5ATL @ NYG20–30NYG
2011 · playoffsATL @ NYG2–24NYG
2009 · W11ATL @ NYG31–34NYG
2007 · W6NYG @ ATL31–10NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–ATL
NYGQ1 15:0023Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 14:03416Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 12:12968Missed field goal0–7
ATLQ1 7:251080Touchdown0–14
NYGQ1 1:4331Punt0–14
ATLQ1 0:22516Punt0–14
NYGQ2 12:472-1Turnover0–14
ATLQ2 12:0838Field goal0–17
NYGQ2 10:22948Turnover on downs0–17
ATLQ2 6:03412Punt0–17
NYGQ2 3:42879Turnover on downs0–17
ATLQ2 1:1013End of half0–17
ATLQ3 15:00880Touchdown0–24
NYGQ3 11:311040Turnover on downs0–24
ATLQ3 6:531173Field goal0–27
NYGQ3 0:1037Punt0–27
ATLQ4 14:111479Touchdown0–34
NYGQ4 4:57211Turnover0–34
ATLQ4 4:06531End of half0–34

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning13/2516102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Wilson12554.60
Kregg Lumpkin9424.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Domenik Hixon56800
Hakeem Nicks37400
Martellus Bennett12150
Victor Cruz35150
David Wilson13110
Kregg Lumpkin0100
Jerrel Jernigan0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan23/2827030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner16523.31
Jacquizz Rodgers11252.30
Julio Jones11818.00
Matt Ryan1-1-1.00
Harry Douglas1-1-1.00
Luke McCown2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Harry Douglas33830
Julio Jones66742
Tony Gonzalez67491
Roddy White25160
Jacquizz Rodgers11140
Michael Turner1290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.3%

Expected total

47.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.21