Closing spread
ATL -1
Total
50
Model margin
+4.2est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.086EPA / play+0.091
- 46.8%Success rate46.4%
- +0.142EPA / dropback+0.234
- -0.000EPA / rush-0.192
- 10.8%Explosive rate7.3%
- +0.81CPOE+5.71
- 41.8%Third-down rate44.9%
- 57.2%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 2.27Points / drive2.31
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 8–6 since 1999
ATL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. ATL are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 13/25 | 161 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Wilson | 12 | 55 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Kregg Lumpkin | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domenik Hixon | 5 | 6 | 80 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 3 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| David Wilson | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Kregg Lumpkin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerrel Jernigan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 23/28 | 270 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 16 | 52 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 11 | 25 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Luke McCown | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Douglas | 3 | 3 | 83 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 6 | 6 | 74 | 2 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 6 | 7 | 49 | 1 |
| Roddy White | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.21