Closing spread
NYG -7
Total
46
Model margin
+0.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play+0.062
- 43.4%Success rate44.1%
- +0.093EPA / dropback+0.178
- -0.036EPA / rush-0.102
- 8.0%Explosive rate10.4%
- -1.75CPOE+2.61
- 42.8%Third-down rate42.5%
- 59.8%Red-zone TD rate56.6%
- 1.97Points / drive2.02
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 8–6 since 1999
ATL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. NYG are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 26/46 | 268 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 8 | 14 | 82 | 1 |
| Michael Jenkins | 6 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 4 | 12 | 45 | 0 |
| Justin Peelle | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 25/39 | 384 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Manningham | 6 | 10 | 126 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 8 | 79 | 0 |
| Kevin Boss | 5 | 8 | 76 | 2 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 5 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Domenik Hixon | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
4.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.43
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.61