2009 · Week 11

Final / OT

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

31·34

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 53°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NYG -7

Total

46

Model margin

+0.6est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

4.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapGiants
  • +0.041EPA / play+0.062
  • 43.4%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback+0.178
  • -0.036EPA / rush-0.102
  • 8.0%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -1.75CPOE+2.61
  • 42.8%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 59.8%Red-zone TD rate56.6%
  • 1.97Points / drive2.02
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 8–6 since 1999

ATL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. NYG are 6-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W16NYG @ ATL7–34ATL
2021 · W3ATL @ NYG17–14ATL
2018 · W7NYG @ ATL20–23ATL
2015 · W2ATL @ NYG24–20ATL
2014 · W5ATL @ NYG20–30NYG
2012 · W15NYG @ ATL0–34ATL
2011 · playoffsATL @ NYG2–24NYG
2007 · W6NYG @ ATL31–10NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00721Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 10:3936Punt0–0
NYGQ1 9:041259Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 2:54965Touchdown7–3
NYGQ2 13:58754Missed field goal7–3
ATLQ2 10:3633Punt7–3
NYGQ2 8:33462Touchdown7–10
ATLQ2 7:011123Missed field goal7–10
NYGQ2 2:5132Punt7–10
ATLQ2 1:5231Turnover7–10
NYGQ2 1:19634Touchdown7–17
ATLQ2 0:1400End of half7–17
ATLQ3 15:00863Touchdown14–17
NYGQ3 11:43763Touchdown14–24
ATLQ3 8:361951Field goal17–24
NYGQ3 1:57979Touchdown17–31
ATLQ4 12:081265Touchdown24–31
NYGQ4 6:01527Punt24–31
ATLQ4 3:421276Touchdown31–31
NYGQ4 0:2836Punt31–31
NYGOT749Field goal31–34

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan26/4626820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Ryan5142.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Gonzalez814821
Michael Jenkins69760
Roddy White412450
Justin Peelle33410
Marty Booker1470
Eric Weems1141

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning25/3938431

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jacobs12393.31
Ahmad Bradshaw12342.80
D.J. Ware2157.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mario Manningham6101260
Steve Smith48790
Kevin Boss58762
Hakeem Nicks57650
Domenik Hixon11160
Brandon Jacobs22130
Ahmad Bradshaw0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

4.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.7%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.43
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+0.61