Closing spread
ATL -4.5
Total
52
Model margin
+3.2est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.016EPA / play+0.083
- 39.9%Success rate46.6%
- +0.054EPA / dropback+0.200
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.160
- 9.5%Explosive rate9.6%
- +0.30CPOE+4.21
- 36.5%Third-down rate45.1%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate72.2%
- 1.89Points / drive2.34
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 8–6 since 1999
ATL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. ATL are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 27/38 | 399 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 14 | 43 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Shepard | 5 | 8 | 167 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 8 | 11 | 143 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 9 | 10 | 51 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Scott Simonson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 31/39 | 379 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Ito Smith | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 9 | 12 | 104 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 3 | 3 | 63 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ricky Ortiz | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.72
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.22