2018 · Week 7

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

20·23

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -4.5

Total

52

Model margin

+3.2est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.016EPA / play+0.083
  • 39.9%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.054EPA / dropback+0.200
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.160
  • 9.5%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +0.30CPOE+4.21
  • 36.5%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 51.8%Red-zone TD rate72.2%
  • 1.89Points / drive2.34
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 8–6 since 1999

ATL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. ATL are 8-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W16NYG @ ATL7–34ATL
2021 · W3ATL @ NYG17–14ATL
2015 · W2ATL @ NYG24–20ATL
2014 · W5ATL @ NYG20–30NYG
2012 · W15NYG @ ATL0–34ATL
2011 · playoffsATL @ NYG2–24NYG
2009 · W11ATL @ NYG31–34NYG
2007 · W6NYG @ ATL31–10NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00518Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:29740Punt0–0
ATLQ1 7:581052Punt0–0
NYGQ1 1:561038Punt0–0
ATLQ2 11:15620Punt0–0
NYGQ2 7:243-8Punt0–0
ATLQ2 5:52386Touchdown0–7
NYGQ2 4:511077Field goal3–7
ATLQ2 0:50615Field goal3–10
NYGQ2 0:0300End of half3–10
NYGQ3 15:00874Turnover on downs3–10
ATLQ3 11:371273Turnover3–10
NYGQ3 5:39662Field goal6–10
ATLQ3 3:51648Field goal6–13
NYGQ4 14:5530Punt6–13
ATLQ4 13:01965Touchdown6–20
NYGQ4 7:47978Touchdown12–20
ATLQ4 4:47747Field goal12–23
NYGQ4 1:55772Touchdown20–23
ATLQ4 0:0500End of half20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning27/3839910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley14433.11
Evan Engram11010.00
Eli Manning372.30
Odell Beckham Jr.1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sterling Shepard581670
Odell Beckham Jr.8111431
Saquon Barkley910510
Evan Engram24160
Rhett Ellison22110
Bennie Fowler11110
Scott Simonson0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan31/3937910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman11504.51
Ito Smith7162.30
Matt Ryan210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones9121040
Marvin Hall33631
Austin Hooper34480
Calvin Ridley56430
Tevin Coleman22320
Ito Smith22290
Justin Hardy22240
Mohamed Sanu22210
Eric Saubert1180
Ricky Ortiz2270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.72
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.22