Closing spread
ATL -9.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play+0.041
- 41.1%Success rate48.4%
- -0.073EPA / dropback+0.083
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.015
- 6.8%Explosive rate9.7%
- -1.45CPOE-0.01
- 36.0%Third-down rate39.1%
- 47.5%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 1.28Points / drive2.10
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 8–6 since 1999
ATL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. ATL are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 22/39 | 210 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | 7 | 14 | 68 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 7 | 12 | 62 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 4 | 4 | 43 | 1 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Eric Gray | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | 18/27 | 202 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 22 | 94 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 11 | 22 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 5 | 6 | 82 | 0 |
| Drake London | 5 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Chris Blair | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.90
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.30
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.22