2024 · Week 16

Final

Giants

New York

QB Tommy DeVito

7·34

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Penix Jr.

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -9.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+4.2est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.088EPA / play+0.041
  • 41.1%Success rate48.4%
  • -0.073EPA / dropback+0.083
  • -0.116EPA / rush-0.015
  • 6.8%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -1.45CPOE-0.01
  • 36.0%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 47.5%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
  • 1.28Points / drive2.10
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 8–6 since 1999

ATL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. ATL are 8-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W3ATL @ NYG17–14ATL
2018 · W7NYG @ ATL20–23ATL
2015 · W2ATL @ NYG24–20ATL
2014 · W5ATL @ NYG20–30NYG
2012 · W15NYG @ ATL0–34ATL
2011 · playoffsATL @ NYG2–24NYG
2009 · W11ATL @ NYG31–34NYG
2007 · W6NYG @ ATL31–10NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00740Missed field goal0–0
NYGQ1 11:4436Punt0–0
ATLQ1 10:45520Punt0–0
NYGQ1 8:051470Touchdown7–0
ATLQ2 14:53736Field goal7–3
NYGQ2 10:36532Opp touchdown7–10
NYGQ2 7:56510Punt7–10
ATLQ2 5:091056Touchdown7–17
NYGQ2 1:431-10Turnover7–17
ATLQ2 1:26624Turnover7–17
NYGQ2 0:0720End of half7–17
NYGQ3 15:0023Opp touchdown7–24
NYGQ3 14:2034Punt7–24
ATLQ3 13:311269Touchdown7–31
NYGQ3 7:1436Punt7–31
ATLQ3 5:511579Field goal7–34
NYGQ4 10:47610Punt7–34
ATLQ4 7:2338Punt7–34
NYGQ4 5:2614103Turnover on downs7–34
ATLQ4 1:1200End of half7–34

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Lock22/3921012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyrone Tracy Jr.7263.70
Devin Singletary4123.00
Darius Slayton166.00
Drew Lock111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Malik Nabers714680
Wan'Dale Robinson712620
Tyrone Tracy Jr.44431
Darius Slayton12210
Jalin Hyatt1290
Daniel Bellinger1250
Eric Gray1120

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Michael Penix Jr.18/2720201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson22944.32
Tyler Allgeier11222.00
Ray-Ray McCloud188.00
Michael Penix Jr.430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnell Mooney56820
Drake London58590
Ray-Ray McCloud34190
Chris Blair11170
Tyler Allgeier1190
Bijan Robinson2290
Kyle Pitts1270
Charlie Woerner0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

3.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.3%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.30
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.22