Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
48
Model margin
+1.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play-0.141
- 41.2%Success rate40.2%
- -0.028EPA / dropback-0.146
- -0.162EPA / rush-0.133
- 8.2%Explosive rate5.7%
- +0.85CPOE-4.62
- 38.5%Third-down rate35.9%
- 52.7%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
- 1.58Points / drive1.20
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 8–6 since 1999
ATL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. NYG are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 27/36 | 243 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 6 | 7 | 82 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 8 | 11 | 61 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 3 | 6 | 32 | 1 |
| Mike Davis | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 3 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 24/35 | 266 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 16 | 51 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Gary Brightwell | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 4 | 5 | 64 | 0 |
| Collin Johnson | 5 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 6 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| C.J. Board | 1 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 2 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Kaden Smith | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.86
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.09