2021 · Week 3

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

17·14

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 69°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NYG -3

Total

48

Model margin

+1.1est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapGiants
  • -0.076EPA / play-0.141
  • 41.2%Success rate40.2%
  • -0.028EPA / dropback-0.146
  • -0.162EPA / rush-0.133
  • 8.2%Explosive rate5.7%
  • +0.85CPOE-4.62
  • 38.5%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 52.7%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
  • 1.58Points / drive1.20
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 8–6 since 1999

ATL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. NYG are 6-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W16NYG @ ATL7–34ATL
2018 · W7NYG @ ATL20–23ATL
2015 · W2ATL @ NYG24–20ATL
2014 · W5ATL @ NYG20–30NYG
2012 · W15NYG @ ATL0–34ATL
2011 · playoffsATL @ NYG2–24NYG
2009 · W11ATL @ NYG31–34NYG
2007 · W6NYG @ ATL31–10NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NYG
ATLQ1 15:00616Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:141183Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 6:58426Punt0–3
NYGQ1 4:40424Punt0–3
ATLQ1 2:3537Punt0–3
NYGQ1 0:511489Field goal0–6
ATLQ2 8:13951Punt0–6
NYGQ2 3:4244Punt0–6
ATLQ2 2:09636Touchdown7–6
NYGQ2 1:33213Turnover7–6
ATLQ2 1:003-3Turnover7–6
NYGQ2 0:0700End of half7–6
NYGQ3 15:00729Punt7–6
ATLQ3 11:1436Punt7–6
NYGQ3 9:38722Punt7–6
ATLQ3 6:18632Punt7–6
NYGQ3 3:031164Touchdown7–14
ATLQ4 12:531667Touchdown14–14
NYGQ4 4:13819Punt14–14
ATLQ4 1:50658Field goal17–14

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan27/3624320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Davis12504.20
Cordarrelle Patterson7202.90
Matt Ryan1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cordarrelle Patterson67820
Calvin Ridley811610
Kyle Pitts23350
Olamide Zaccheaus36321
Mike Davis44200
Lee Smith3371
Tajae Sharpe1160
Hayden Hurst0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones24/3526600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley16513.21
Daniel Jones8394.90
Gary Brightwell144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Golladay45640
Collin Johnson57510
Saquon Barkley67430
C.J. Board12380
Evan Engram26210
Sterling Shepard23160
Kadarius Toney23160
Kaden Smith1190
Darius Slayton1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.0%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.86
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.09