Closing spread
NYG -4
Total
50.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play-0.014
- 44.0%Success rate41.2%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.072
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.147
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.7%
- +1.47CPOE+0.79
- 44.6%Third-down rate43.5%
- 69.1%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.87Points / drive1.78
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 8–6 since 1999
ATL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. NYG are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 29/45 | 316 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Antone Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 11 | 16 | 105 | 0 |
| Antone Smith | 3 | 3 | 83 | 1 |
| Devonta Freeman | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 5 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 19/30 | 200 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Williams | 20 | 65 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Rashad Jennings | 10 | 55 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston Parker | 3 | 3 | 61 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 4 | 5 | 44 | 1 |
| Rueben Randle | 4 | 10 | 33 | 1 |
| Victor Cruz | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Adrien Robinson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Larry Donnell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.4%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.50
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.23