2014 · Week 5

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

20·30

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 55°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NYG -4

Total

50.5

Model margin

+4.2est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapGiants
  • +0.007EPA / play-0.014
  • 44.0%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.072
  • -0.161EPA / rush-0.147
  • 8.4%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +1.47CPOE+0.79
  • 44.6%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 69.1%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.78
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 8–6 since 1999

ATL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. NYG are 6-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W16NYG @ ATL7–34ATL
2021 · W3ATL @ NYG17–14ATL
2018 · W7NYG @ ATL20–23ATL
2015 · W2ATL @ NYG24–20ATL
2012 · W15NYG @ ATL0–34ATL
2011 · playoffsATL @ NYG2–24NYG
2009 · W11ATL @ NYG31–34NYG
2007 · W6NYG @ ATL31–10NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00512Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:1936Punt0–0
NYGQ1 11:461278Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 6:401075Touchdown7–7
NYGQ1 1:5700Field goal7–7
ATLQ1 1:48518Field goal10–7
NYGQ2 14:1539Punt10–7
ATLQ2 12:34947Punt10–7
NYGQ2 8:53850Field goal10–10
ATLQ2 3:401073Field goal13–10
NYGQ2 0:0300End of half13–10
ATLQ3 15:00513Turnover13–10
ATLQ3 13:1467Punt13–10
NYGQ3 10:03621Punt13–10
ATLQ3 6:57380Touchdown20–10
NYGQ3 5:371050Touchdown20–17
ATLQ3 2:0530Punt20–17
NYGQ3 0:241164Touchdown20–24
ATLQ4 10:0237Punt20–24
NYGQ4 8:23624Field goal20–27
ATLQ4 5:0140Turnover on downs20–27
NYGQ4 4:34512Field goal20–30
ATLQ4 2:081071End of half20–30

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan29/4531611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman4389.50
Steven Jackson13372.81
Jacquizz Rodgers2105.00
Devin Hester133.00
Antone Smith122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones11161050
Antone Smith33831
Devonta Freeman56440
Steven Jackson56370
Roddy White24260
Devin Hester24160
Jacquizz Rodgers1250
Levine Toilolo0200

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning19/3020020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Williams20653.31
Rashad Jennings10555.50
Peyton Hillis273.50
Eli Manning2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Preston Parker33610
Odell Beckham Jr.45441
Rueben Randle410331
Victor Cruz36220
Andre Williams22180
Rashad Jennings22170
Adrien Robinson1150
Larry Donnell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.4%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.50
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+4.23