2015 · Week 2

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

24·20

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 73°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NYG -2

Total

49.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapGiants
  • +0.000EPA / play+0.025
  • 46.4%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.113EPA / dropback+0.106
  • -0.195EPA / rush-0.119
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -0.01CPOE-1.12
  • 47.3%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.77Points / drive2.02
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 8–6 since 1999

ATL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. NYG are 6-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W16NYG @ ATL7–34ATL
2021 · W3ATL @ NYG17–14ATL
2018 · W7NYG @ ATL20–23ATL
2014 · W5ATL @ NYG20–30NYG
2012 · W15NYG @ ATL0–34ATL
2011 · playoffsATL @ NYG2–24NYG
2009 · W11ATL @ NYG31–34NYG
2007 · W6NYG @ ATL31–10NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NYG
ATLQ1 15:001140Punt0–0
NYGQ1 9:28824Punt0–0
ATLQ1 4:531386Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 0:341050Field goal7–3
ATLQ2 10:061151Field goal10–3
NYGQ2 4:46480Touchdown10–10
ATLQ2 3:1936Punt10–10
NYGQ2 2:28625Punt10–10
ATLQ2 1:2532Punt10–10
NYGQ2 0:58640Field goal10–13
ATLQ2 0:0200End of half10–13
NYGQ3 15:00969Touchdown10–20
ATLQ3 10:5333Punt10–20
NYGQ3 8:34757Turnover10–20
ATLQ3 4:1513101Touchdown17–20
NYGQ4 12:39935Punt17–20
ATLQ4 8:00744Punt17–20
NYGQ4 4:2438Punt17–20
ATLQ4 3:12770Touchdown24–20
NYGQ4 1:1460Turnover on downs24–20
ATLQ4 0:3500End of half24–20

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan30/4636310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman9323.61
Devonta Freeman12252.11
Matt Ryan1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones13151350
Jacob Tamme46770
Leonard Hankerson611771
Devonta Freeman48340
Patrick DiMarco11190
Nick Williams11120
Terron Ward1190
Roddy White0100
Levine Toilolo0100
Tevin Coleman0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning27/4029220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Williams6437.20
Eli Manning22311.50
Shane Vereen6193.20
Rashad Jennings9121.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.7121461
Shane Vereen88760
Larry Donnell46281
Preston Parker36170
Rashad Jennings22120
Rueben Randle1250
Geremy Davis1150
Jerome Cunningham1330

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +24.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.5%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.38