Closing spread
NYG -2
Total
49.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.000EPA / play+0.025
- 46.4%Success rate44.0%
- +0.113EPA / dropback+0.106
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.119
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- -0.01CPOE-1.12
- 47.3%Third-down rate37.1%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.77Points / drive2.02
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 8–6 since 1999
ATL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. NYG are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 30/46 | 363 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Devonta Freeman | 12 | 25 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 13 | 15 | 135 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 4 | 6 | 77 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 6 | 11 | 77 | 1 |
| Devonta Freeman | 4 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Nick Williams | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Terron Ward | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 27/40 | 292 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Williams | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 9 | 12 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 7 | 12 | 146 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 8 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| Larry Donnell | 4 | 6 | 28 | 1 |
| Preston Parker | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Geremy Davis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jerome Cunningham | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.18
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.38