Closing spread
DEN -14
Total
36
Model margin
+2.7est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 36 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 9:23 | 14 | 47 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 1:33 | 2 | 56 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 0:39 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q2 13:25 | 7 | 14 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| LV | Q2 10:09 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 8:33 | 7 | 44 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| LV | Q2 3:59 | 5 | 65 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| DEN | Q2 1:09 | 2 | 2 | End of half | 0–13 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–13 |
| LV | Q3 13:47 | 11 | 23 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| DEN | Q3 7:11 | 8 | 25 | Punt | 3–13 |
| LV | Q3 2:59 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 3–13 |
| DEN | Q4 15:00 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 3–13 |
| LV | Q4 12:04 | 9 | 40 | Turnover on downs | 3–13 |
| DEN | Q4 8:40 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 3–13 |
| LV | Q4 7:18 | 6 | 46 | Turnover | 3–13 |
| DEN | Q4 4:24 | 7 | 47 | End of half | 3–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 11/18 | 102 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 23 | 83 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jake Plummer | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Javon Walker | 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.72
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.