Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
45
Model margin
+1.7est.
STL perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. STL are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 79 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 9:36 | 11 | 62 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 4:30 | 13 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| SEA | Q2 13:02 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LA | Q2 11:31 | 10 | 1 | Punt | 7–14 |
| SEA | Q2 7:42 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LA | Q2 6:13 | 6 | 42 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| SEA | Q2 2:41 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 7–21 |
| LA | Q2 1:18 | 4 | 31 | End of half | 7–21 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 66 | Missed field goal | 7–21 |
| LA | Q3 9:33 | 8 | 26 | Punt | 7–21 |
| SEA | Q3 6:08 | 7 | 66 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| LA | Q3 4:28 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–21 |
| SEA | Q3 2:59 | 8 | 25 | Field goal | 17–21 |
| LA | Q4 14:21 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| SEA | Q4 14:14 | 2 | 22 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| LA | Q4 13:33 | 3 | -21 | Punt | 24–21 |
| SEA | Q4 11:55 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 27–21 |
| LA | Q4 10:33 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 27–21 |
| SEA | Q4 7:00 | 6 | 47 | Punt | 27–21 |
| LA | Q4 3:27 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 27–21 |
| SEA | Q4 3:09 | 3 | 10 | Turnover | 27–21 |
| LA | Q4 2:48 | 5 | 98 | Touchdown | 27–28 |
| SEA | Q4 1:44 | 6 | 52 | Field goal | 30–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 19/34 | 268 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 23 | 74 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.33
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.67
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.