Closing spread
DEN -4.5
Total
31
Model margin
+0.0est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.045EPA / play-0.197
- 40.7%Success rate38.3%
- -0.060EPA / dropback-0.178
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.231
- 8.8%Explosive rate6.4%
- -2.37CPOE+3.75
- 37.1%Third-down rate34.0%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
- 1.52Points / drive1.01
- 2.8%Turnover rate4.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–2 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. CLE are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 11:20 | 2 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 11:01 | 8 | 36 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 6:17 | 4 | 17 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 4:49 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 2:34 | 9 | 85 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CLE | Q2 13:01 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q2 11:21 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CLE | Q2 9:51 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q2 6:50 | 12 | 86 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| CLE | Q2 1:54 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| DEN | Q2 1:02 | 4 | 16 | End of half | 10–0 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–0 |
| DEN | Q3 13:55 | 9 | 56 | Touchdown | 17–0 |
| CLE | Q3 9:13 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 17–0 |
| DEN | Q3 7:57 | 10 | 36 | Missed field goal | 17–0 |
| CLE | Q3 3:04 | 7 | 32 | Turnover | 17–0 |
| DEN | Q4 14:48 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 17–0 |
| CLE | Q4 13:09 | 3 | 18 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| DEN | Q4 11:43 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 17–7 |
| CLE | Q4 9:31 | 5 | 18 | Turnover on downs | 17–7 |
| DEN | Q4 7:45 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 17–7 |
| CLE | Q4 6:46 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 17–7 |
| DEN | Q4 5:57 | 9 | 25 | Punt | 17–7 |
| CLE | Q4 1:06 | 4 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 17–7 |
| DEN | Q4 0:31 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 20/41 | 209 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 24 | 115 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Mike Bell | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Frye | 19/33 | 149 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Charlie Frye | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.03