2018 · Week 15

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

17·16

Broncos

Denver

QB Case Keenum

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

DEN -1

Total

47

Model margin

+1.4est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.009EPA / play-0.020
  • 42.8%Success rate43.4%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback-0.009
  • -0.091EPA / rush-0.040
  • 10.4%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -0.95CPOE-0.98
  • 35.9%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 71.1%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.60
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 10–2 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DEN are 8-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13CLE @ DEN32–41DEN
2023 · W12CLE @ DEN12–29DEN
2021 · W7DEN @ CLE14–17CLE
2019 · W9CLE @ DEN19–24DEN
2015 · W6DEN @ CLE26–23DEN
2012 · W16CLE @ DEN12–34DEN
2009 · W2CLE @ DEN6–27DEN
2008 · W10DEN @ CLE34–30DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–DEN
DENQ1 15:003-13Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:12451Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 11:4931Punt7–0
CLEQ1 10:5133Punt7–0
DENQ1 9:551554Touchdown7–7
CLEQ1 3:18622Punt7–7
DENQ2 15:001161Field goal7–10
CLEQ2 8:161138Field goal10–10
DENQ2 4:53737Turnover10–10
CLEQ2 1:4135Punt10–10
DENQ2 1:1734Punt10–10
CLEQ2 0:47425Turnover10–10
DENQ2 0:1800End of half10–10
CLEQ3 15:001763Turnover10–10
DENQ3 5:49831Field goal10–13
CLEQ3 1:414-3Punt10–13
DENQ4 14:4910Turnover10–13
CLEQ4 14:41648Touchdown17–13
DENQ4 11:441269Field goal17–16
CLEQ4 4:35858Turnover on downs17–16
DENQ4 1:49826Turnover on downs17–16
CLEQ4 0:3900End of half17–16

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield18/3118821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb201005.00
Duke Johnson4287.00
Baker Mayfield461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry38370
Antonio Callaway57351
Breshad Perriman12311
Rashard Higgins23300
David Njoku35300
Duke Johnson45250
Nick Chubb0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum31/4825702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Phillip Lindsay14241.70
Royce Freeman471.80
Case Keenum210.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tim Patrick58650
DaeSean Hamilton712460
Matt LaCosse46430
Courtland Sutton56420
Phillip Lindsay46200
Brian Parker22180
Devontae Booker23170
Andre Holmes1150
Royce Freeman1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.8%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.35
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.39