Closing spread
DEN -1
Total
47
Model margin
+1.4est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play-0.020
- 42.8%Success rate43.4%
- +0.037EPA / dropback-0.009
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.040
- 10.4%Explosive rate9.9%
- -0.95CPOE-0.98
- 35.9%Third-down rate33.1%
- 71.1%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 1.75Points / drive1.60
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–2 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DEN are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 18/31 | 188 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 20 | 100 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 3 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Antonio Callaway | 5 | 7 | 35 | 1 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 2 | 31 | 1 |
| Rashard Higgins | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 31/48 | 257 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 14 | 24 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Patrick | 5 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 7 | 12 | 46 | 0 |
| Matt LaCosse | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 4 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Brian Parker | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Andre Holmes | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.35
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.39