Closing spread
DEN -6.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+6.7est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.179EPA / play+0.011
- 37.1%Success rate42.8%
- -0.196EPA / dropback+0.062
- -0.140EPA / rush-0.075
- 5.8%Explosive rate9.0%
- -4.22CPOE+0.58
- 28.8%Third-down rate40.4%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.09Points / drive2.16
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–2 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DEN are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 34/58 | 497 | 4 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Ford | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 9 | 21 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 9 | 13 | 235 | 1 |
| Elijah Moore | 8 | 14 | 111 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 9 | 17 | 52 | 2 |
| Mike Woods | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Jerome Ford | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Jamari Thrash | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Whiteheart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 18/35 | 294 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 14 | 84 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Audric Estimé | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Bo Nix | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 3 | 4 | 105 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 6 | 9 | 102 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Lucas Krull | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Nate Adkins | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Devaughn Vele | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.6%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+6.69