2024 · Week 13

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jameis Winston

32·41

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

DEN -6.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+6.7est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.179EPA / play+0.011
  • 37.1%Success rate42.8%
  • -0.196EPA / dropback+0.062
  • -0.140EPA / rush-0.075
  • 5.8%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -4.22CPOE+0.58
  • 28.8%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 1.09Points / drive2.16
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 10–2 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DEN are 8-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W12CLE @ DEN12–29DEN
2021 · W7DEN @ CLE14–17CLE
2019 · W9CLE @ DEN19–24DEN
2018 · W15CLE @ DEN17–16CLE
2015 · W6DEN @ CLE26–23DEN
2012 · W16CLE @ DEN12–34DEN
2009 · W2CLE @ DEN6–27DEN
2008 · W10DEN @ CLE34–30DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–DEN
DENQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:41661Missed field goal0–0
DENQ1 10:161263Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 4:13570Touchdown7–7
DENQ1 1:0930Punt7–7
CLEQ1 0:48511Punt7–7
DENQ2 14:0245Turnover7–7
CLEQ2 12:32842Field goal10–7
DENQ2 8:4930Punt10–7
CLEQ2 8:0933Punt10–7
DENQ2 7:07767Touchdown10–14
CLEQ2 4:03741Opp touchdown10–21
CLEQ2 1:381170Touchdown17–21
DENQ2 0:1300End of half17–21
CLEQ3 15:00419Punt17–21
DENQ3 13:3748Punt17–21
CLEQ3 11:59310Punt17–21
DENQ3 10:34398Touchdown17–28
CLEQ3 10:01170Touchdown25–28
DENQ3 9:50510Punt25–28
CLEQ3 8:13419Punt25–28
DENQ3 5:58983Field goal25–31
CLEQ3 1:52710Punt25–31
DENQ4 12:4010Turnover25–31
CLEQ4 12:31977Touchdown32–31
DENQ4 8:571061Field goal32–34
CLEQ4 2:54412Opp touchdown32–41
CLEQ4 1:48837Turnover32–41
DENQ4 0:3400End of half32–41

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston34/5849743

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Ford9414.60
Nick Chubb9212.30
Jameis Winston3113.70
Kadarius Toney133.00
Elijah Moore111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy9132351
Elijah Moore8141110
David Njoku917522
Mike Woods35430
Nick Chubb22241
Jerome Ford11210
Jamari Thrash22110
Jordan Akins0100
Kadarius Toney0100
Blake Whiteheart0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix18/3529412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaleel McLaughlin14846.00
Audric Estimé3124.00
Marvin Mims Jr.144.00
Bo Nix341.30
Javonte Williams410.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Mims Jr.341051
Courtland Sutton691020
Troy Franklin25280
Lucas Krull33240
Nate Adkins11160
Devaughn Vele14160
Javonte Williams1230
Adam Trautman0100
Jaleel McLaughlin1200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.1%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

4.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.6%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+6.69