2012 · Week 16

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brandon Weeden

12·34

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

DEN -11

Total

43.5

Model margin

+7.8est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

1.7%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.068EPA / play+0.113
  • 39.6%Success rate48.0%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback+0.271
  • -0.066EPA / rush-0.106
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -4.22CPOE+7.00
  • 30.6%Third-down rate46.0%
  • 58.2%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
  • 1.48Points / drive2.26
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 10–2 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DEN are 8-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13CLE @ DEN32–41DEN
2023 · W12CLE @ DEN12–29DEN
2021 · W7DEN @ CLE14–17CLE
2019 · W9CLE @ DEN19–24DEN
2018 · W15CLE @ DEN17–16CLE
2015 · W6DEN @ CLE26–23DEN
2009 · W2CLE @ DEN6–27DEN
2008 · W10DEN @ CLE34–30DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–DEN
DENQ1 15:00880Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 12:101373Field goal3–7
DENQ1 4:351685Touchdown3–14
CLEQ2 12:40625Punt3–14
DENQ2 10:16727Punt3–14
CLEQ2 7:58639Punt3–14
DENQ2 4:571593Turnover3–14
CLEQ2 0:1400End of half3–14
CLEQ3 15:00830Field goal6–14
DENQ3 11:091396Touchdown6–21
CLEQ3 4:333-12Punt6–21
DENQ3 3:15739Field goal6–24
CLEQ4 14:5335Punt6–24
DENQ4 13:1633Punt6–24
DENQ4 12:2631Touchdown6–31
CLEQ4 12:1110Touchdown6–31
CLEQ4 11:1629Touchdown6–31
CLEQ4 10:4232Touchdown6–31
CLEQ4 10:10650Touchdown12–31
DENQ4 7:5637Punt12–31
CLEQ4 4:46623Turnover on downs12–31
DENQ4 3:57627Field goal12–34
CLEQ4 1:555-10Turnover on downs12–34
DENQ4 0:3900End of half12–34

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Weeden12/1910400
Colt McCoy9/177910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trent Richardson9535.90
Colt McCoy2178.50
Montario Hardesty3144.70
Brandon Weeden341.30
Josh Cribbs133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Little67581
Benjamin Watson310470
Travis Benjamin35460
Trent Richardson34150
Montario Hardesty1170
Josh Gordon1370
Brad Smelley1130
Chris Ogbonnaya2220
Josh Cooper0200
Alex Smith11-20

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning30/4333931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno22783.50
Ronnie Hillman6355.80
Jacob Hester362.01
Brock Osweiler1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas9141021
Jacob Tamme23690
Eric Decker66652
Knowshon Moreno57490
Brandon Stokley56320
Joel Dreessen34220
Matt Willis0200
Ronnie Hillman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +115.7%7.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.66%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

69.4%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.33
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.82