Closing spread
DEN -11
Total
43.5
Model margin
+7.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.068EPA / play+0.113
- 39.6%Success rate48.0%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.271
- -0.066EPA / rush-0.106
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.9%
- -4.22CPOE+7.00
- 30.6%Third-down rate46.0%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 1.48Points / drive2.26
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–2 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DEN are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 12/19 | 104 | 0 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 9/17 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Richardson | 9 | 53 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Montario Hardesty | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Little | 6 | 7 | 58 | 1 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 10 | 47 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 3 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Montario Hardesty | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Brad Smelley | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Josh Cooper | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 30/43 | 339 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 22 | 78 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Jacob Hester | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Brock Osweiler | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 9 | 14 | 102 | 1 |
| Jacob Tamme | 2 | 3 | 69 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 6 | 6 | 65 | 2 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 5 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 5 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Matt Willis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.82