Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play-0.074
- 40.5%Success rate41.1%
- -0.041EPA / dropback-0.025
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.179
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.0%
- -1.92CPOE-0.75
- 35.2%Third-down rate41.6%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate41.3%
- 1.47Points / drive1.32
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–2 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. CLE are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 26/48 | 290 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Hillman | 20 | 111 | 5.5 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 13 | 41 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 10 | 17 | 111 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 12 | 109 | 1 |
| C.J. Anderson | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 20/39 | 213 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Johnson | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Benjamin | 9 | 13 | 117 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 3 | 9 | 39 | 2 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Johnson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.3%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.65