NFL Intelligence

2015 · Week 6

Final / OT

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

26·23

Browns

Cleveland

QB Josh McCown

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

DEN -3.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-0.7est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

OutDeMarcus WareLBBack· DNP
OutTy SambrailoTShoulder· Limited
QuestionableAqib TalibCBAnkle· Limited
QuestionableDemaryius ThomasWRNeck· Limited
QuestionableEvan MathisGHamstring· DNP
QuestionableJuwan ThompsonRBHamstring· DNP
ProbableBennie FowlerWRHamstring· Full
ProbableCody LatimerWRGroin· Full
ProbableKenny AnunikeDEKnee· Full
ProbableLouis VasquezGNot Injury Related· Full
ProbableOmar BoldenCBFoot· Full
ProbableOwen DanielsTENot Injury Related· Full
ProbablePeyton ManningQBNot Injury Related· Full
ProbableRyan HarrisTKnee· Full

Browns

OutCraig RobertsonLBAnkle· DNP
OutJoe HadenCBConcussion· DNP
OutTashaun GipsonSAnkle· DNP
QuestionableDesmond BryantDEShoulder· Limited
QuestionableIsaiah CrowellRBToe· Limited
QuestionableKarlos DansbyLBAnkle· Limited
QuestionableMarlon MooreWRHamstring· DNP
QuestionableRobert TurbinRBAnkle· Limited
QuestionableShaun DraughnRBBack· Full
DNPScott SolomonLBKnee
ProbableJosh McCownQBAnkle· Limited
ProbableBrian HartlineWRThigh· Full
ProbableJohnny ManzielQBright Elbow· Full
ProbableMitchell SchwartzTThumb· Full

Win probability

Browns
Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapBrowns

-0.070EPA / play-0.074
40.5%Success rate41.1%
-0.041EPA / dropback-0.025
-0.118EPA / rush-0.179
8.0%Explosive rate7.0%
-1.92CPOE-0.75
35.2%Third-down rate41.6%
51.4%Red-zone TD rate41.3%
1.47Points / drive1.32
2.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 10–2 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. CLE are 4-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
Season	Matchup	Score	Winner
2024 · W13	CLE @ DEN	32–41	DEN
2023 · W12	CLE @ DEN	12–29	DEN
2021 · W7	DEN @ CLE	14–17	CLE
2019 · W9	CLE @ DEN	19–24	DEN
2018 · W15	CLE @ DEN	17–16	CLE
2012 · W16	CLE @ DEN	12–34	DEN
2009 · W2	CLE @ DEN	6–27	DEN
2008 · W10	DEN @ CLE	34–30	DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
Ball	Start	Plays	Yards	Result	DEN–CLE
DEN	Q1 15:00	6	28	Turnover	0–0
CLE	Q1 12:03	6	17	Turnover on downs	0–0
DEN	Q1 10:10	14	58	Field goal	3–0
CLE	Q1 2:52	9	26	Opp touchdown	10–0
CLE	Q2 14:09	9	20	Punt	10–0
DEN	Q2 9:04	3	3	Punt	10–0
CLE	Q2 8:01	3	1	Punt	10–0
DEN	Q2 7:03	3	5	Punt	10–0
CLE	Q2 5:37	4	17	Punt	10–0
DEN	Q2 3:22	6	47	Missed field goal	10–0
CLE	Q2 0:18	3	13	End of half	10–0
CLE	Q3 15:00	8	79	Touchdown	10–7
DEN	Q3 11:07	5	18	Punt	10–7
CLE	Q3 9:14	3	5	Punt	10–7
DEN	Q3 7:49	4	11	Punt	10–7
CLE	Q3 5:38	2	-7	Turnover	10–7
DEN	Q3 4:49	5	34	Field goal	13–7
CLE	Q3 2:06	3	0	Punt	13–7
DEN	Q3 1:40	7	51	Field goal	16–7
CLE	Q4 13:33	8	80	Touchdown	16–14
DEN	Q4 9:16	3	19	Opp touchdown	16–20
DEN	Q4 8:07	1	75	Touchdown	23–20
CLE	Q4 7:53	3	10	Punt	23–20
DEN	Q4 6:13	4	5	Punt	23–20
CLE	Q4 4:51	10	37	Field goal	23–23
DEN	Q4 1:30	3	0	Punt	23–23
CLE	Q4 1:06	3	14	Turnover	23–23
DEN	Q4 0:44	3	13	Punt	23–23
CLE	Q4 0:08	0	0	End of half	23–23
DEN	OT	2	3	Turnover	23–23
DEN	OT	1	0	Turnover	23–23
DEN	OT	1	0	Turnover	23–23
CLE	OT	3	-13	Punt	23–23
CLE	OT	0	0	Punt	23–23
CLE	OT	0	0	Punt	23–23
DEN	OT	1	4	Field goal	23–23
DEN	OT	10	62	Field goal	23–23
DEN	OT	1	6	Field goal	26–23
DEN	OT	0	0	Field goal	26–23

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT
Peyton Manning	26/48	290	1	3

Rushing

Player	Car	Yds	Avg	TD
Ronnie Hillman	20	111	5.5	0
C.J. Anderson	13	41	3.2	0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD
Demaryius Thomas	10	17	111	0
Emmanuel Sanders	4	12	109	1
C.J. Anderson	4	4	25	0
Owen Daniels	2	3	24	0
Andre Caldwell	2	2	18	0
Ronnie Hillman	3	5	4	0
Bennie Fowler	0	1	0	0
Cody Latimer	0	1	0	0
Jordan Norwood	1	2	-1	0

Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT
Josh McCown	20/39	213	2	2

Rushing

Player	Car	Yds	Avg
Duke Johnson	9	38	4.2
Isaiah Crowell	11	32	2.9
Robert Turbin	10	27	2.7
Josh McCown	3	12	4.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD
Travis Benjamin	9	13	117	0
Gary Barnidge	3	9	39	2
Andrew Hawkins	1	4	25	0
Duke Johnson	3	4	18	0
Isaiah Crowell	2	2	9	0
Taylor Gabriel	1	2	5	0
Brian Hartline	0	3	0	0
Robert Turbin	0	1	0	0
Malcolm Johnson	1	1	0	0

Where this game is likely to land

Model
Smooth (normal)
Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.3%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.14
Home-field advantage+2.49
Quarterback adjustment0.00
Rest differential0.00
Expected margin-0.65