2023 · Week 12

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson

12·29

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

DEN -1.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.127EPA / play-0.046
  • 39.3%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.131EPA / dropback-0.005
  • -0.121EPA / rush-0.110
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -5.66CPOE+3.74
  • 32.3%Third-down rate36.8%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.87
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 10–2 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DEN are 8-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13CLE @ DEN32–41DEN
2021 · W7DEN @ CLE14–17CLE
2019 · W9CLE @ DEN19–24DEN
2018 · W15CLE @ DEN17–16CLE
2015 · W6DEN @ CLE26–23DEN
2012 · W16CLE @ DEN12–34DEN
2009 · W2CLE @ DEN6–27DEN
2008 · W10DEN @ CLE34–30DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–DEN
CLEQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:351144Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 8:14628Turnover0–7
DENQ1 4:37413Turnover0–7
CLEQ1 3:0033Punt0–7
DENQ1 2:031482Touchdown0–14
CLEQ2 11:111258Field goal3–14
DENQ2 5:59629Punt3–14
CLEQ2 3:041067Field goal6–14
DENQ2 0:2200End of half6–14
DENQ3 15:0036Punt6–14
CLEQ3 13:061473Touchdown12–14
DENQ3 6:42965Field goal12–17
CLEQ3 1:2556Turnover12–17
DENQ4 14:54420Touchdown12–24
CLEQ4 13:2930Punt12–24
DENQ4 11:5733Punt12–24
CLEQ4 10:07620Turnover12–24
DENQ4 8:24642Field goal12–27
CLEQ4 4:19617Turnover on downs12–27
DENQ4 2:533-6Punt12–27
CLEQ4 2:323-5Safety12–29
DENQ4 2:1900Punt12–29
CLEQ4 0:3000End of half12–29

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dorian Thompson-Robinson14/2913410
PJ Walker6/135600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Ford9657.20
Kareem Hunt7223.10
Dorian Thompson-Robinson5214.20
Harrison Bryant100.00
Elijah Moore100.00
PJ Walker1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Njoku69590
Cedric Tillman45550
Elijah Moore39440
Amari Cooper26160
Jerome Ford47140
Harrison Bryant1121
David Bell0200

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson13/2213410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams18653.60
Samaje Perine7557.91
Russell Wilson11343.11
Marvin Mims Jr.11111.00
Jaleel McLaughlin242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton36610
Marvin Mims Jr.23240
Lil'Jordan Humphrey11130
Samaje Perine11110
Jerry Jeudy23110
Adam Trautman1181
Javonte Williams3660

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.59
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.05