Closing spread
DEN -1.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.127EPA / play-0.046
- 39.3%Success rate42.3%
- -0.131EPA / dropback-0.005
- -0.121EPA / rush-0.110
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.6%
- -5.66CPOE+3.74
- 32.3%Third-down rate36.8%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
- 1.56Points / drive1.87
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–2 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DEN are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 14/29 | 134 | 1 | 0 |
| PJ Walker | 6/13 | 56 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Ford | 9 | 65 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| PJ Walker | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Njoku | 6 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| Cedric Tillman | 4 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 3 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 2 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 4 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| David Bell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 13/22 | 134 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 18 | 65 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 7 | 55 | 7.9 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.59
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.05