2019 · Week 9

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

19·24

Broncos

Denver

QB Brandon Allen

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CLE -4

Total

39

Model margin

+1.6est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.027EPA / play-0.054
  • 41.3%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.025EPA / dropback-0.019
  • -0.116EPA / rush-0.110
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -3.23CPOE-2.47
  • 36.3%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
  • 1.80Points / drive1.47
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 10–2 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DEN are 8-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13CLE @ DEN32–41DEN
2023 · W12CLE @ DEN12–29DEN
2021 · W7DEN @ CLE14–17CLE
2018 · W15CLE @ DEN17–16CLE
2015 · W6DEN @ CLE26–23DEN
2012 · W16CLE @ DEN12–34DEN
2009 · W2CLE @ DEN6–27DEN
2008 · W10DEN @ CLE34–30DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–DEN
DENQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:24516Punt0–0
DENQ1 10:56963Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 6:09818Punt0–7
DENQ1 1:453-4Punt0–7
CLEQ1 0:08419Field goal3–7
DENQ2 12:48175Touchdown3–14
CLEQ2 12:34864Field goal6–14
DENQ2 7:1432Turnover6–14
CLEQ2 6:1159Field goal9–14
DENQ2 3:49443Field goal9–17
CLEQ2 1:471358Field goal12–17
DENQ2 0:151-7End of half12–17
CLEQ3 15:0039Punt12–17
DENQ3 13:324-6Punt12–17
CLEQ3 11:311132Turnover on downs12–17
DENQ3 5:16795Touchdown12–24
CLEQ3 1:061066Touchdown19–24
DENQ4 10:47720Punt19–24
CLEQ4 7:21860Turnover on downs19–24
DENQ4 3:19217End of half19–24

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield27/4227310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb20653.30
Baker Mayfield3227.30
Dontrell Hilliard581.60
Odell Beckham Jr.1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.56870
Antonio Callaway45560
Jarvis Landry613511
Nick Chubb45260
Demetrius Harris34250
Ricky Seals-Jones22120
KhaDarel Hodge11100
Dontrell Hilliard2260
Rashard Higgins0100
Stephen Carlson0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Allen12/2019320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Phillip Lindsay99210.21
Royce Freeman5153.00
Brandon Allen5132.60
Courtland Sutton177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Noah Fant341151
Courtland Sutton58561
Devontae Booker11140
Troy Fumagalli1190
Diontae Spencer1300
Royce Freeman11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -44.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.5%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.33
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.42
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.65