Closing spread
CLE -4
Total
39
Model margin
+1.6est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play-0.054
- 41.3%Success rate40.3%
- +0.025EPA / dropback-0.019
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.110
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.2%
- -3.23CPOE-2.47
- 36.3%Third-down rate32.0%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
- 1.80Points / drive1.47
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–2 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DEN are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 27/42 | 273 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 20 | 65 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 5 | 6 | 87 | 0 |
| Antonio Callaway | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 6 | 13 | 51 | 1 |
| Nick Chubb | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Carlson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Allen | 12/20 | 193 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 9 | 92 | 10.2 | 1 |
| Royce Freeman | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Allen | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Fant | 3 | 4 | 115 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 8 | 56 | 1 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Troy Fumagalli | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Diontae Spencer | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.33
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.42
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.65