2009 · Week 2

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brady Quinn

6·27

Broncos

Denver

QB Kyle Orton

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

DEN -3

Total

38.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.168EPA / play-0.026
  • 35.2%Success rate42.0%
  • -0.266EPA / dropback+0.029
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.107
  • 8.1%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -10.33CPOE-2.00
  • 32.5%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 42.9%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
  • 1.23Points / drive1.49
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 10–2 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DEN are 8-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13CLE @ DEN32–41DEN
2023 · W12CLE @ DEN12–29DEN
2021 · W7DEN @ CLE14–17CLE
2019 · W9CLE @ DEN19–24DEN
2018 · W15CLE @ DEN17–16CLE
2015 · W6DEN @ CLE26–23DEN
2012 · W16CLE @ DEN12–34DEN
2008 · W10DEN @ CLE34–30DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–DEN
DENQ1 15:0000Field goal0–0
CLEQ1 14:55618Field goal3–0
DENQ1 12:22723Punt3–0
CLEQ1 10:0731Turnover3–0
DENQ1 9:1439Touchdown3–7
CLEQ1 8:031051Field goal6–7
DENQ1 1:491276Field goal6–10
CLEQ2 11:42724Punt6–10
DENQ2 7:55410Punt6–10
CLEQ2 6:1739Punt6–10
DENQ2 4:001655Missed field goal6–10
CLEQ2 0:2300End of half6–10
CLEQ3 15:0038Turnover6–10
DENQ3 13:34523Field goal6–13
CLEQ3 10:39430Punt6–13
DENQ3 8:16954Missed field goal6–13
CLEQ3 2:49529Punt6–13
DENQ3 1:03797Touchdown6–20
CLEQ4 12:183-13Punt6–20
DENQ4 9:55367Touchdown6–27
CLEQ4 8:2437Punt6–27
DENQ4 6:52937Turnover on downs6–27
CLEQ4 1:47837Turnover6–27
DENQ4 0:0800End of half6–27

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brady Quinn18/3116101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis14382.70
Jerome Harrison382.70
Josh Cribbs144.00
Brady Quinn341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Braylon Edwards67920
Jerome Harrison44240
Josh Cribbs57220
Robert Royal13130
Jamal Lewis1180
Mike Furrey1420
Steve Heiden0100
Mohamed Massaquoi0200

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton19/3726310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Correll Buckhalter9768.41
Knowshon Moreno17754.40
LaMont Jordan7192.70
Brandon Marshall11414.00
Peyton Hillis122.01
Kyle Orton200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jabar Gaffney35820
Brandon Stokley57700
Brandon Marshall36340
Correll Buckhalter13300
Knowshon Moreno22220
Eddie Royal39200
Daniel Graham1130
Tony Scheffler1221
LaMont Jordan0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.48