Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
38.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.168EPA / play-0.026
- 35.2%Success rate42.0%
- -0.266EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.107
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.9%
- -10.33CPOE-2.00
- 32.5%Third-down rate36.3%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
- 1.23Points / drive1.49
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–2 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DEN are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Quinn | 18/31 | 161 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 14 | 38 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brady Quinn | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braylon Edwards | 6 | 7 | 92 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 5 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Robert Royal | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mike Furrey | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Steve Heiden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 19/37 | 263 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 9 | 76 | 8.4 | 1 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 17 | 75 | 4.4 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Kyle Orton | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabar Gaffney | 3 | 5 | 82 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 5 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 1 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 3 | 9 | 20 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| LaMont Jordan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.48