Closing spread
CLE -2
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.021EPA / play+0.014
- 44.7%Success rate43.7%
- +0.100EPA / dropback+0.013
- -0.093EPA / rush+0.015
- 9.1%Explosive rate11.2%
- +2.34CPOE-2.26
- 38.3%Third-down rate39.1%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.89Points / drive1.81
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–2 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. CLE are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 23/33 | 187 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 5 | 68 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 5 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 6 | 7 | 32 | 1 |
| Tim Patrick | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Kendall Hinton | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2 | 3 | 14 | 1 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| John Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrie Cleveland | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 21/33 | 199 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Ernest Johnson | 22 | 146 | 6.6 | 1 |
| John Kelly | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Demetric Felton | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Johnny Stanton | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Demetric Felton | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Johnny Stanton | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Rashard Higgins | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.10
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.04