2021 · Week 7

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Teddy Bridgewater

14·17

Browns

Cleveland

QB Case Keenum

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 27mph

Closing spread

CLE -2

Total

40.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapBrowns
  • +0.021EPA / play+0.014
  • 44.7%Success rate43.7%
  • +0.100EPA / dropback+0.013
  • -0.093EPA / rush+0.015
  • 9.1%Explosive rate11.2%
  • +2.34CPOE-2.26
  • 38.3%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.81
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 10–2 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. CLE are 4-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13CLE @ DEN32–41DEN
2023 · W12CLE @ DEN12–29DEN
2019 · W9CLE @ DEN19–24DEN
2018 · W15CLE @ DEN17–16CLE
2015 · W6DEN @ CLE26–23DEN
2012 · W16CLE @ DEN12–34DEN
2009 · W2CLE @ DEN6–27DEN
2008 · W10DEN @ CLE34–30DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00575Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 12:2039Punt0–7
CLEQ1 10:131258Field goal0–10
DENQ1 3:09646Turnover0–10
CLEQ2 14:53732Punt0–10
DENQ2 10:52312Punt0–10
CLEQ2 8:371351Missed field goal0–10
DENQ2 1:5032Punt0–10
CLEQ2 1:023-2Punt0–10
DENQ2 0:2327End of half0–10
DENQ3 15:001379Touchdown7–10
CLEQ3 7:481480Touchdown7–17
DENQ3 0:2733Punt7–17
CLEQ4 14:27616Punt7–17
DENQ4 11:251765Touchdown14–17
CLEQ4 5:171067End of half14–17

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater23/3318721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams4205.00
Melvin Gordon8182.30
Teddy Bridgewater231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton55680
Noah Fant57390
Javonte Williams67321
Tim Patrick25160
Kendall Hinton22150
Melvin Gordon23141
Eric Saubert1130
John Brown0100
Tyrie Cleveland0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum21/3319910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Ernest Johnson221466.61
John Kelly2136.50
Demetric Felton2136.50
Case Keenum471.80
Johnny Stanton252.50
Anthony Schwartz1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Hooper23420
Jarvis Landry58370
Odell Beckham Jr.26230
D'Ernest Johnson22220
Anthony Schwartz23220
Demetric Felton33210
David Njoku22180
Harrison Bryant12150
Johnny Stanton1111
Rashard Higgins12-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +23.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.10
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.23
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.04