Closing spread
JAX -7.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.062
- 42.5%Success rate43.2%
- -0.026EPA / dropback-0.069
- +0.053EPA / rush-0.052
- 10.6%Explosive rate6.8%
- +0.26CPOE+4.14
- 39.0%Third-down rate38.7%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
- 1.59Points / drive1.41
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 33–16 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. HOU are 28-20-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 13:24 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 8:55 | 10 | 51 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 3:50 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 2:43 | 12 | 81 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q2 12:16 | 5 | 31 | Punt | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q2 9:50 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q2 7:43 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q2 6:08 | 10 | 51 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| JAX | Q2 1:10 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 0–10 |
| HOU | Q2 0:24 | 2 | 8 | End of half | 0–10 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 63 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| HOU | Q3 9:20 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–10 |
| JAX | Q3 7:55 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–10 |
| HOU | Q3 6:25 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–10 |
| JAX | Q3 4:58 | 10 | 32 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| HOU | Q3 0:07 | 8 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| JAX | Q4 11:32 | 1 | 15 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| HOU | Q4 11:19 | 3 | 26 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| JAX | Q4 9:57 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–24 |
| HOU | Q4 8:25 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–24 |
| JAX | Q4 6:18 | 5 | 17 | Turnover on downs | 7–24 |
| HOU | Q4 5:04 | 5 | 28 | Field goal | 7–27 |
| JAX | Q4 3:12 | 5 | 16 | Turnover on downs | 7–27 |
| HOU | Q4 2:05 | 3 | 14 | End of half | 7–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 14/28 | 125 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 16 | 84 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Reggie Williams | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 25/34 | 224 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wali Lundy | 19 | 93 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Samkon Gado | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| David Carr | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Edell Shepherd | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
4.60%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.5%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.84
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.50
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-1.34