Closing spread
JAX -7.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.062
- 42.5%Success rate43.2%
- -0.026EPA / dropback-0.069
- +0.053EPA / rush-0.052
- 10.6%Explosive rate6.8%
- +0.26CPOE+4.14
- 39.0%Third-down rate38.7%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
- 1.59Points / drive1.41
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 27-20-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 14/28 | 125 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 16 | 84 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Reggie Williams | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 25/34 | 224 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wali Lundy | 19 | 93 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Samkon Gado | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| David Carr | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Edell Shepherd | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
4.60%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.5%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.84
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.50
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-1.34