Closing spread
SEA -6
Total
40
Model margin
+3.0est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.151EPA / play-0.075
- 39.3%Success rate40.2%
- -0.174EPA / dropback-0.031
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.130
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.2%
- +1.13CPOE-1.93
- 33.2%Third-down rate37.5%
- 45.1%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 0.99Points / drive1.49
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 15/24 | 171 | 1 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1/1 | 15 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 26 | 169 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Bethel Johnson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 14/25 | 134 | 0 | 2 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 7/17 | 127 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 17 | 49 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.05
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.05