Closing spread
SEA -6
Total
40
Model margin
+3.0est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.151EPA / play-0.075
- 39.3%Success rate40.2%
- -0.174EPA / dropback-0.031
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.130
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.2%
- +1.13CPOE-1.93
- 33.2%Third-down rate37.5%
- 45.1%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 0.99Points / drive1.49
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 38 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q1 11:40 | 3 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| MIN | Q1 10:01 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q1 8:17 | 9 | 31 | Punt | 3–7 |
| MIN | Q1 3:11 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q1 1:31 | 6 | 45 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| MIN | Q2 14:13 | 11 | 84 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| SEA | Q2 7:55 | 6 | 3 | Punt | 10–10 |
| MIN | Q2 5:12 | 4 | 3 | Turnover on downs | 10–10 |
| SEA | Q2 2:56 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–10 |
| MIN | Q2 1:50 | 6 | 1 | End of half | 10–10 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 10–10 |
| MIN | Q3 14:01 | 10 | 79 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| SEA | Q3 8:51 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| MIN | Q3 7:56 | 3 | 5 | Missed field goal | 17–10 |
| SEA | Q3 5:54 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 23–10 |
| MIN | Q3 5:06 | 1 | 95 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| SEA | Q3 4:50 | 11 | 74 | Field goal | 24–13 |
| MIN | Q4 14:11 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 24–13 |
| SEA | Q4 12:39 | 7 | 14 | Turnover on downs | 24–13 |
| MIN | Q4 9:38 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 24–13 |
| SEA | Q4 8:00 | 2 | -9 | Opp touchdown | 31–13 |
| SEA | Q4 7:48 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 31–13 |
| MIN | Q4 6:14 | 5 | 5 | Punt | 31–13 |
| SEA | Q4 2:34 | 9 | 50 | Turnover | 31–13 |
| MIN | Q4 0:53 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 31–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 15/24 | 171 | 1 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1/1 | 15 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 26 | 169 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Bethel Johnson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 14/25 | 134 | 0 | 2 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 7/17 | 127 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 17 | 49 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.05
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.05