Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
-2.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play+0.072
- 45.6%Success rate45.5%
- -0.017EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.017EPA / rush-0.024
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.8%
- -3.95CPOE+3.73
- 38.8%Third-down rate49.3%
- 62.8%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 1.77Points / drive2.18
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 12/26 | 189 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 27 | 114 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 14/25 | 227 | 2 | 3 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 7/12 | 111 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 13 | 30 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.7%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.41
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-4.97
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.00