Closing spread
SD -6
Total
38
Model margin
+2.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 22 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 12:48 | 6 | 13 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 9:53 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 8:58 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 7:24 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| KC | Q1 6:25 | 1 | 11 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 6:21 | 5 | 0 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 4:08 | 3 | 32 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q1 3:17 | 7 | 44 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| KC | Q2 14:52 | 6 | 73 | Touchdown | 3–20 |
| LAC | Q2 11:06 | 11 | 77 | Field goal | 6–20 |
| KC | Q2 4:22 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 6–20 |
| LAC | Q2 3:09 | 11 | 45 | Missed field goal | 6–20 |
| KC | Q2 1:02 | 2 | 3 | End of half | 6–20 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–20 |
| LAC | Q3 13:11 | 7 | 30 | Touchdown | 13–20 |
| KC | Q3 9:29 | 14 | 89 | Touchdown | 13–27 |
| LAC | Q3 1:32 | 7 | 66 | Touchdown | 20–27 |
| KC | Q4 13:16 | 5 | 30 | Punt | 20–27 |
| LAC | Q4 10:10 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 20–27 |
| KC | Q4 8:28 | 3 | -1 | Turnover | 20–27 |
| LAC | Q4 7:36 | 6 | 6 | Touchdown | 27–27 |
| KC | Q4 5:10 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 27–27 |
| LAC | Q4 1:48 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 27–27 |
| KC | Q4 0:33 | 3 | 52 | Field goal | 27–30 |
| LAC | Q4 0:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 15/27 | 232 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 28 | 132 | 4.7 | 2 |
| Samie Parker | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.80
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.