Closing spread
GB -4
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.045EPA / play-0.067
- 42.0%Success rate40.0%
- +0.036EPA / dropback-0.018
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.146
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.1%
- -3.07CPOE-5.72
- 39.4%Third-down rate38.9%
- 53.4%Red-zone TD rate36.6%
- 1.52Points / drive1.28
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–5 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. GB are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Leinart | 14/35 | 157 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 24 | 84 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Matt Leinart | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 17/25 | 180 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 21 | 106 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Vernand Morency | 11 | 101 | 9.2 | 0 |
| Noah Herron | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 4 | -5 | -1.3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.43