Closing spread
GB -4
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.045EPA / play-0.067
- 42.0%Success rate40.0%
- +0.036EPA / dropback-0.018
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.146
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.1%
- -3.07CPOE-5.72
- 39.4%Third-down rate38.9%
- 53.4%Red-zone TD rate36.6%
- 1.52Points / drive1.28
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–5 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. GB are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 13:55 | 5 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 11:05 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 9:42 | 11 | 73 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 5:05 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 2:41 | 9 | 70 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| ARI | Q2 14:22 | 8 | 19 | Punt | 0–14 |
| GB | Q2 9:49 | 9 | 87 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| ARI | Q2 6:24 | 14 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| GB | Q2 0:29 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–21 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 61 | Touchdown | 7–28 |
| ARI | Q3 7:41 | 15 | 59 | Touchdown | 14–28 |
| GB | Q3 1:33 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–28 |
| ARI | Q4 14:42 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 14–28 |
| GB | Q4 13:14 | 10 | 57 | Field goal | 14–31 |
| ARI | Q4 6:56 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 14–31 |
| GB | Q4 5:15 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–31 |
| ARI | Q4 3:22 | 9 | 38 | Turnover | 14–31 |
| GB | Q4 1:38 | 2 | 12 | End of half | 14–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Leinart | 14/35 | 157 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 24 | 84 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Matt Leinart | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 17/25 | 180 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 21 | 106 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Vernand Morency | 11 | 101 | 9.2 | 0 |
| Noah Herron | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 4 | -5 | -1.3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.43