Closing spread
CAR -4.5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.071
- 45.5%Success rate41.2%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.112
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.2%
- +3.73CPOE-0.31
- 49.3%Third-down rate31.1%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
- 2.18Points / drive1.29
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.3 points. CAR are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 24/36 | 270 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 24 | 92 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Marion Barber | 9 | 49 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Tony Romo | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 17/31 | 149 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 15 | 50 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 1 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.49