Closing spread
CAR -4.5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.071
- 45.5%Success rate41.2%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.112
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.2%
- +3.73CPOE-0.31
- 49.3%Third-down rate31.1%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
- 2.18Points / drive1.29
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.3 points. CAR are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 13:50 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 11:53 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 10:57 | 8 | 52 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 6:51 | 7 | 42 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 3:35 | 4 | 7 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| CAR | Q1 1:29 | 1 | 24 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| DAL | Q1 1:21 | 9 | 47 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| CAR | Q2 12:12 | 9 | 40 | Punt | 7–14 |
| DAL | Q2 6:23 | 13 | 68 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| CAR | Q2 0:27 | 4 | 27 | Missed field goal | 10–14 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 35 | Punt | 10–14 |
| CAR | Q3 10:24 | 10 | 32 | Punt | 10–14 |
| DAL | Q3 6:17 | 7 | 40 | Punt | 10–14 |
| CAR | Q3 3:14 | 4 | 29 | Punt | 10–14 |
| DAL | Q3 0:53 | 13 | 81 | Field goal | 13–14 |
| CAR | Q4 9:52 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 19–14 |
| DAL | Q4 9:47 | 1 | 14 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| CAR | Q4 9:43 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 21–14 |
| DAL | Q4 9:09 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 21–14 |
| CAR | Q4 5:31 | 2 | 4 | Turnover | 21–14 |
| DAL | Q4 4:40 | 5 | 18 | Touchdown | 28–14 |
| CAR | Q4 2:17 | 2 | -4 | Turnover | 28–14 |
| DAL | Q4 1:54 | 2 | 19 | Touchdown | 35–14 |
| CAR | Q4 1:37 | 6 | 9 | End of half | 35–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 24/36 | 270 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 24 | 92 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Marion Barber | 9 | 49 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Tony Romo | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 17/31 | 149 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 15 | 50 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 1 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.49