Closing spread
CAR -2.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play+0.067
- 43.9%Success rate48.0%
- +0.051EPA / dropback+0.086
- -0.060EPA / rush+0.033
- 8.9%Explosive rate10.7%
- +1.03CPOE+2.75
- 41.3%Third-down rate42.1%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
- 1.93Points / drive2.20
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.3 points. CAR are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 19/29 | 170 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 15 | 69 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Beasley | 7 | 8 | 73 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Jarwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 17/26 | 161 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 13 | 58 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 10 | 50 | 5.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 9 | 45 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.95