2018 · Week 1

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

8·16

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

CAR -2.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapPanthers
  • +0.009EPA / play+0.067
  • 43.9%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.051EPA / dropback+0.086
  • -0.060EPA / rush+0.033
  • 8.9%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +1.03CPOE+2.75
  • 41.3%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
  • 1.93Points / drive2.20
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 11–4 since 1999

Meetings average 40.3 points. CAR are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6DAL @ CAR27–30CAR
2024 · W15DAL @ CAR30–14DAL
2023 · W11DAL @ CAR33–10DAL
2021 · W4CAR @ DAL28–36DAL
2015 · W12CAR @ DAL33–14CAR
2012 · W7DAL @ CAR19–14DAL
2009 · W3CAR @ DAL7–21DAL
2007 · W16DAL @ CAR20–13DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–CAR
DALQ1 15:0043Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:201158Turnover0–0
DALQ1 6:36940Punt0–0
CARQ1 2:12845Punt0–0
DALQ2 14:0130Punt0–0
CARQ2 12:18735Touchdown0–7
DALQ2 8:503-1Punt0–7
CARQ2 7:0738Punt0–7
DALQ2 5:42519Punt0–7
CARQ2 2:441063Field goal0–10
DALQ2 0:0300End of half0–10
CARQ3 15:00512Punt0–10
DALQ3 11:46746Punt0–10
CARQ3 8:1635Punt0–10
DALQ3 6:36836Missed field goal0–10
CARQ3 2:37758Touchdown0–16
DALQ4 14:121165Touchdown8–16
CARQ4 8:51615Punt8–16
DALQ4 4:52931Turnover on downs8–16
CARQ4 2:1330Punt8–16
DALQ4 1:513-6Turnover8–16
CARQ4 1:2700End of half8–16

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott19/2917000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott15694.61
Dak Prescott5193.80
Rod Smith155.00
Tavon Austin111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Beasley78730
Deonte Thompson35270
Allen Hurns13200
Geoff Swaim34180
Ezekiel Elliott34170
Michael Gallup1190
Terrance Williams1260
Rod Smith0100
Blake Jarwin0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton17/2616100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton13584.51
Christian McCaffrey10505.00
C.J. Anderson7355.00
DJ Moore133.00
Alex Armah111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian McCaffrey69450
Devin Funchess35410
Greg Olsen22330
Jarius Wright35230
Torrey Smith12150
Ian Thomas2240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.6%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.95