Closing spread
CAR -2.5
Total
42
Model margin
+1.2est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.040
- 41.4%Success rate41.8%
- -0.067EPA / dropback-0.041
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.040
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.5%
- -4.87CPOE+0.06
- 37.1%Third-down rate36.3%
- 51.7%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
- 1.68Points / drive1.88
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.3 points. CAR are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 18/29 | 214 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 25 | 149 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 9 | 13 | 116 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Jalen Brooks | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 19/28 | 219 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Xavier Legette | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Coker | 4 | 6 | 110 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 5 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| David Moore | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.56
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.23