2024 · Week 15

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Cooper Rush

30·14

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CAR -2.5

Total

42

Model margin

+1.2est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapPanthers
  • -0.089EPA / play-0.040
  • 41.4%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.067EPA / dropback-0.041
  • -0.128EPA / rush-0.040
  • 7.7%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -4.87CPOE+0.06
  • 37.1%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 51.7%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
  • 1.68Points / drive1.88
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 11–4 since 1999

Meetings average 40.3 points. CAR are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6DAL @ CAR27–30CAR
2023 · W11DAL @ CAR33–10DAL
2021 · W4CAR @ DAL28–36DAL
2018 · W1DAL @ CAR8–16CAR
2015 · W12CAR @ DAL33–14CAR
2012 · W7DAL @ CAR19–14DAL
2009 · W3CAR @ DAL7–21DAL
2007 · W16DAL @ CAR20–13DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–CAR
DALQ1 15:00612Punt0–0
CARQ1 11:051467Turnover0–0
DALQ1 2:4131Punt0–0
CARQ1 1:3535Punt0–0
DALQ2 14:461087Touchdown7–0
CARQ2 9:01521Turnover7–0
DALQ2 6:19519Field goal10–0
CARQ2 4:0531Punt10–0
DALQ2 2:391046Turnover10–6
CARQ2 0:42183Touchdown10–7
DALQ2 0:31324Missed field goal10–7
CARQ3 15:001-5Turnover10–7
DALQ3 14:50529Touchdown17–7
CARQ3 12:46311Punt17–7
DALQ3 10:23678Touchdown24–7
CARQ3 6:553-11Punt24–7
DALQ3 4:33956Field goal27–7
CARQ4 14:121451Touchdown27–14
DALQ4 9:13523Field goal30–14
CARQ4 6:09812Turnover30–14
DALQ4 4:21836End of half30–14

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cooper Rush18/2921430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle251496.00
Ezekiel Elliott9303.30
KaVontae Turpin22713.50
Cooper Rush451.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb9131161
Brandin Cooks35340
Jake Ferguson24230
Jalen Brooks11171
Ezekiel Elliott11110
Jalen Tolbert12111
Brevyn Spann-Ford1120
KaVontae Turpin0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young19/2821912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard10323.20
Mike Boone2147.00
Bryce Young3124.01
Xavier Legette122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jalen Coker461101
Adam Thielen57510
David Moore24190
Chuba Hubbard44170
Tommy Tremble22150
Xavier Legette2370
Ja'Tavion Sanders0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.56
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.23