Closing spread
DAL -2.5
Total
45
Model margin
+5.2est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play+0.081
- 47.2%Success rate44.9%
- +0.127EPA / dropback+0.158
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.026
- 7.3%Explosive rate11.0%
- +3.18CPOE-1.55
- 43.3%Third-down rate42.2%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 1.79Points / drive1.90
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.3 points. CAR are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 24/34 | 227 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 15 | 44 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Phillip Tanner | 13 | 30 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Austin | 5 | 9 | 97 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 6 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Phillip Tanner | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 21/37 | 233 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 6 | 64 | 10.7 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 7 | 9 | 83 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 8 | 53 | 1 |
| Louis Murphy | 3 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
47.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.15