2012 · Week 7

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

19·14

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

DAL -2.5

Total

45

Model margin

+5.2est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapPanthers
  • +0.043EPA / play+0.081
  • 47.2%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.127EPA / dropback+0.158
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.026
  • 7.3%Explosive rate11.0%
  • +3.18CPOE-1.55
  • 43.3%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.90
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 11–4 since 1999

Meetings average 40.3 points. CAR are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6DAL @ CAR27–30CAR
2024 · W15DAL @ CAR30–14DAL
2023 · W11DAL @ CAR33–10DAL
2021 · W4CAR @ DAL28–36DAL
2018 · W1DAL @ CAR8–16CAR
2015 · W12CAR @ DAL33–14CAR
2009 · W3CAR @ DAL7–21DAL
2007 · W16DAL @ CAR20–13DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–CAR
CARQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:4039Punt0–0
CARQ1 11:42410Punt0–0
DALQ1 9:261885Field goal3–0
CARQ2 14:161189Turnover3–0
DALQ2 7:32747Turnover3–0
CARQ2 4:141080Touchdown3–7
DALQ2 0:1400End of half3–7
DALQ3 15:00617Punt3–7
CARQ3 11:44419Punt3–7
DALQ3 9:32573Touchdown10–7
CARQ3 7:3830Punt10–7
DALQ3 5:4069Field goal13–7
CARQ3 2:1339Punt13–7
DALQ3 0:1238Punt13–7
CARQ4 13:581067Touchdown13–14
DALQ4 11:38517Punt13–14
CARQ4 8:5434Punt13–14
DALQ4 7:32944Field goal16–14
CARQ4 3:25520Turnover on downs16–14
DALQ4 2:0854Field goal19–14
CARQ4 0:53527Turnover19–14

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo24/3422710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Felix Jones15442.90
Phillip Tanner13302.30
Tony Romo3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Miles Austin59971
Jason Witten68440
Felix Jones56300
Kevin Ogletree46270
Dez Bryant23140
Phillip Tanner1180

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton21/3723311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton66410.70
Jonathan Stewart10353.50
DeAngelo Williams242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith79830
Brandon LaFell48531
Louis Murphy39480
Greg Olsen45310
Jonathan Stewart34110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

1.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.7%

Expected total

47.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.10
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+5.15