2025 · Week 6

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

27·30

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

DAL -3

Total

47.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapPanthers
  • +0.109EPA / play-0.025
  • 47.2%Success rate43.7%
  • +0.177EPA / dropback+0.007
  • -0.007EPA / rush-0.072
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +1.89CPOE+1.44
  • 41.3%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 61.6%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 2.53Points / drive1.80
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 11–4 since 1999

Meetings average 40.3 points. CAR are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15DAL @ CAR30–14DAL
2023 · W11DAL @ CAR33–10DAL
2021 · W4CAR @ DAL28–36DAL
2018 · W1DAL @ CAR8–16CAR
2015 · W12CAR @ DAL33–14CAR
2012 · W7DAL @ CAR19–14DAL
2009 · W3CAR @ DAL7–21DAL
2007 · W16DAL @ CAR20–13DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–CAR
DALQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:17763Field goal0–3
DALQ1 9:08968Field goal3–3
CARQ1 4:48621Turnover3–3
DALQ1 2:05417Touchdown10–3
CARQ2 14:56665Touchdown10–10
DALQ2 11:291470Touchdown17–10
CARQ2 3:39929Field goal17–13
DALQ2 0:2000End of half17–13
CARQ3 15:00480Touchdown17–20
DALQ3 13:19520Punt17–20
CARQ3 9:44625Punt17–20
DALQ3 5:28758Touchdown24–20
CARQ3 2:381065Touchdown24–27
DALQ4 12:20962Field goal27–27
CARQ4 9:2033Punt27–27
DALQ4 8:183-8Punt27–27
CARQ4 6:071362Field goal27–30

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott25/3426130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams13292.20
Ryan Flournoy133.00
Jaydon Blue300.00
Dak Prescott2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens9111681
Jake Ferguson33331
Ryan Flournoy36300
Jalen Tolbert1180
Luke Schoonmaker1280
Hunter Luepke2271
Javonte Williams5850
Brevyn Spann-Ford1120

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young17/2519931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle301836.10
Trevor Etienne3175.70
Jimmy Horn Jr.11111.00
Bryce Young351.70
DeeJay Dallas100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rico Dowdle45561
Tommy Tremble44390
Jimmy Horn Jr.22360
Tetairoa McMillan35292
Mitchell Evans11210
Xavier Legette22110
Hunter Renfrow1270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.51