Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play-0.025
- 47.2%Success rate43.7%
- +0.177EPA / dropback+0.007
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.072
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- +1.89CPOE+1.44
- 41.3%Third-down rate35.7%
- 61.6%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 2.53Points / drive1.80
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.3 points. CAR are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 25/34 | 261 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jaydon Blue | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 9 | 11 | 168 | 1 |
| Jake Ferguson | 3 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| Javonte Williams | 5 | 8 | 5 | 0 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 17/25 | 199 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 30 | 183 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Trevor Etienne | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 4 | 5 | 56 | 1 |
| Tommy Tremble | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 3 | 5 | 29 | 2 |
| Mitchell Evans | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.20
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.51