Closing spread
DAL -11
Total
43
Model margin
-4.1est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.121EPA / play-0.160
- 48.0%Success rate38.2%
- +0.229EPA / dropback-0.163
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.155
- 8.9%Explosive rate6.3%
- +3.68CPOE-1.80
- 49.6%Third-down rate34.8%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate42.3%
- 2.67Points / drive1.00
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.3 points. CAR are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 25/38 | 189 | 2 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 2/3 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 12 | 61 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Rico Dowdle | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 6 | 9 | 38 | 1 |
| Jake Ferguson | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 4 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 16/29 | 123 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 10 | 57 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 8 | 11 | 74 | 0 |
| Stephen Sullivan | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.2%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.03
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-4.08