2023 · Week 11

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

33·10

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

DAL -11

Total

43

Model margin

-4.1est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

1.5%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapPanthers
  • +0.121EPA / play-0.160
  • 48.0%Success rate38.2%
  • +0.229EPA / dropback-0.163
  • -0.061EPA / rush-0.155
  • 8.9%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +3.68CPOE-1.80
  • 49.6%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate42.3%
  • 2.67Points / drive1.00
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 11–4 since 1999

Meetings average 40.3 points. CAR are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6DAL @ CAR27–30CAR
2024 · W15DAL @ CAR30–14DAL
2021 · W4CAR @ DAL28–36DAL
2018 · W1DAL @ CAR8–16CAR
2015 · W12CAR @ DAL33–14CAR
2012 · W7DAL @ CAR19–14DAL
2009 · W3CAR @ DAL7–21DAL
2007 · W16DAL @ CAR20–13DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–CAR
DALQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:371041Punt0–0
DALQ1 8:191083Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 3:20514Punt7–0
DALQ1 1:101339Field goal10–0
CARQ2 11:0133Punt10–0
DALQ2 9:47513Punt10–0
CARQ2 6:50950Field goal10–3
DALQ2 1:561135Touchdown17–3
CARQ2 0:2400End of half17–3
CARQ3 15:00413Punt17–3
DALQ3 13:30517Punt17–3
CARQ3 10:571770Touchdown17–10
DALQ3 1:59875Touchdown24–10
CARQ4 13:5810Opp touchdown30–10
CARQ4 13:4862Turnover30–10
DALQ4 11:18618Field goal33–10
CARQ4 7:183-5Punt33–10
DALQ4 5:47827End of half33–10

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott25/3818920
Cooper Rush2/31500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard12615.11
Rico Dowdle8232.90
KaVontae Turpin11313.00
CeeDee Lamb177.00
Dak Prescott263.00
Cooper Rush3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks34420
CeeDee Lamb69381
Jake Ferguson35320
Michael Gallup35310
Luke Schoonmaker22231
Tony Pollard45190
Jalen Tolbert25120
KaVontae Turpin23100
Rico Dowdle22-30

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young16/2912311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard10575.70
Miles Sanders11504.50
Bryce Young231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen811740
Stephen Sullivan11200
Laviska Shenault Jr.2290
Chuba Hubbard2280
Jonathan Mingo1660
Tommy Tremble1341
Miles Sanders1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -112.9%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.6%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

1.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

38.2%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.03
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-4.08