Closing spread
CAR -1
Total
44.5
Model margin
-1.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.074EPA / play-0.073
- 45.5%Success rate43.9%
- +0.153EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.022EPA / rush-0.077
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.6%
- +0.41CPOE-0.85
- 42.1%Third-down rate34.0%
- 71.5%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
- 2.31Points / drive1.31
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.3 points. DAL are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 16/27 | 183 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 21 | 68 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerricho Cotchery | 5 | 6 | 73 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Brenton Bersin | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 11/21 | 106 | 0 | 3 |
| Matt Cassel | 13/19 | 93 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren McFadden | 10 | 11 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren McFadden | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 6 | 7 | 44 | 1 |
| Terrance Williams | 4 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 2 | 8 | 26 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Lucky Whitehead | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.4%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.85
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.37
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.99