2015 · Week 12

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

33·14

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

CAR -1

Total

44.5

Model margin

-1.0est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapCowboys
  • +0.074EPA / play-0.073
  • 45.5%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.022EPA / rush-0.077
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +0.41CPOE-0.85
  • 42.1%Third-down rate34.0%
  • 71.5%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
  • 2.31Points / drive1.31
  • 1.8%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 11–4 since 1999

Meetings average 40.3 points. DAL are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6DAL @ CAR27–30CAR
2024 · W15DAL @ CAR30–14DAL
2023 · W11DAL @ CAR33–10DAL
2021 · W4CAR @ DAL28–36DAL
2018 · W1DAL @ CAR8–16CAR
2012 · W7DAL @ CAR19–14DAL
2009 · W3CAR @ DAL7–21DAL
2007 · W16DAL @ CAR20–13DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–DAL
DALQ1 15:0034Opp touchdown7–0
DALQ1 14:0138Punt7–0
CARQ1 12:27847Field goal10–0
DALQ1 8:091277Field goal10–3
CARQ1 1:22957Punt10–3
DALQ2 11:40512Punt10–3
CARQ2 9:151053Field goal13–3
DALQ2 3:272-3Opp touchdown20–3
DALQ2 2:3610Turnover20–3
CARQ2 2:23827Field goal23–3
CARQ3 15:007-6Punt23–3
DALQ3 11:22522Field goal23–6
CARQ3 7:471465Touchdown30–6
DALQ3 0:183-3Punt30–6
CARQ4 14:13636Field goal33–6
DALQ4 10:231682Touchdown33–14
CARQ4 4:23616Missed field goal33–14
DALQ4 1:48611Turnover on downs33–14
CARQ4 0:3100End of half33–14

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton16/2718300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart21683.20
Cam Newton12453.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerricho Cotchery56730
Greg Olsen59700
Devin Funchess24190
Brenton Bersin12120
Jonathan Stewart3490
Ed Dickson0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo11/2110603
Matt Cassel13/199310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darren McFadden10111.10
Robert Turbin2115.50
Matt Cassel294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darren McFadden46450
Cole Beasley67441
Terrance Williams47390
Jason Witten46360
Dez Bryant28260
Rod Smith1160
Lucky Whitehead1140
Robert Turbin1110
Gavin Escobar11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.4%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.85
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.37
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.99