Closing spread
DAL -4.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+7.5est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.132EPA / play+0.084
- 41.2%Success rate46.8%
- -0.158EPA / dropback+0.168
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.062
- 7.3%Explosive rate9.4%
- -7.50CPOE+1.99
- 36.1%Third-down rate43.7%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
- 1.43Points / drive2.44
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.3 points. DAL are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 26/39 | 301 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 2 |
| Royce Freeman | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 8 | 12 | 113 | 2 |
| Brandon Zylstra | 2 | 2 | 63 | 0 |
| Rodney Smith | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 5 | 11 | 46 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 14/22 | 188 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 20 | 143 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 10 | 67 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 3 | 3 | 69 | 1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 6 | 8 | 58 | 1 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 2 | 2 | 30 | 1 |
| Blake Jarwin | 1 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.5%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.06
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+7.45