2021 · Week 4

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Sam Darnold

28·36

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -4.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+7.5est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.132EPA / play+0.084
  • 41.2%Success rate46.8%
  • -0.158EPA / dropback+0.168
  • -0.089EPA / rush-0.062
  • 7.3%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -7.50CPOE+1.99
  • 36.1%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 53.0%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
  • 1.43Points / drive2.44
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 11–4 since 1999

Meetings average 40.3 points. DAL are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6DAL @ CAR27–30CAR
2024 · W15DAL @ CAR30–14DAL
2023 · W11DAL @ CAR33–10DAL
2018 · W1DAL @ CAR8–16CAR
2015 · W12CAR @ DAL33–14CAR
2012 · W7DAL @ CAR19–14DAL
2009 · W3CAR @ DAL7–21DAL
2007 · W16DAL @ CAR20–13DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–DAL
DALQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:383-4Punt0–0
DALQ1 12:071080Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 7:27975Touchdown7–7
DALQ1 2:41980Touchdown7–13
CARQ2 14:091380Touchdown14–13
DALQ2 7:02720Punt14–13
CARQ2 4:19616Punt14–13
DALQ2 1:40420Punt14–13
CARQ2 0:482-1End of half14–13
CARQ3 15:00549Missed field goal14–13
DALQ3 12:49456Touchdown14–20
CARQ3 10:493-3Punt14–20
DALQ3 9:10466Touchdown14–26
CARQ3 7:21720Turnover14–26
DALQ3 3:37337Touchdown14–33
CARQ3 2:1737Turnover14–33
DALQ3 1:22314Field goal14–36
CARQ4 14:561160Touchdown21–36
DALQ4 8:58417Punt21–36
CARQ4 6:49880Touchdown28–36
DALQ4 4:31540End of half28–36

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold26/3930122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard13574.40
Sam Darnold6355.82
Royce Freeman3124.00
DJ Moore166.00
Robbie Chosen133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore8121132
Brandon Zylstra22630
Rodney Smith55480
Robbie Chosen511460
Ian Thomas33150
Chuba Hubbard22140
Terrace Marshall Jr.1320
Tommy Tremble0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott14/2218840

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott201437.21
Tony Pollard10676.70
Dak Prescott4358.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper33691
Dalton Schultz68581
Cedrick Wilson Jr.22301
Blake Jarwin13181
CeeDee Lamb25130
Ezekiel Elliott0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.0%5.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.5%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+7.45