Closing spread
DAL -9
Total
48
Model margin
+3.1est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play+0.089
- 40.6%Success rate45.5%
- -0.092EPA / dropback+0.176
- -0.022EPA / rush-0.041
- 10.9%Explosive rate11.3%
- -3.62CPOE+0.70
- 37.2%Third-down rate40.5%
- 55.1%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 1.39Points / drive1.77
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.3 points. DAL are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 22/33 | 220 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 11 | 64 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dante Rosario | 3 | 5 | 58 | 1 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 6 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Dwayne Jarrett | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 22/33 | 255 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 8 | 94 | 11.8 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 18 | 82 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Tony Romo | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Patrick Crayton | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 9 | 9 | 77 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 4 | 7 | 75 | 0 |
| Patrick Crayton | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.07