2009 · Week 3

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jake Delhomme

7·21

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Cowboys Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

DAL -9

Total

48

Model margin

+3.1est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.058EPA / play+0.089
  • 40.6%Success rate45.5%
  • -0.092EPA / dropback+0.176
  • -0.022EPA / rush-0.041
  • 10.9%Explosive rate11.3%
  • -3.62CPOE+0.70
  • 37.2%Third-down rate40.5%
  • 55.1%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 1.39Points / drive1.77
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 11–4 since 1999

Meetings average 40.3 points. DAL are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6DAL @ CAR27–30CAR
2024 · W15DAL @ CAR30–14DAL
2023 · W11DAL @ CAR33–10DAL
2021 · W4CAR @ DAL28–36DAL
2018 · W1DAL @ CAR8–16CAR
2015 · W12CAR @ DAL33–14CAR
2012 · W7DAL @ CAR19–14DAL
2007 · W16DAL @ CAR20–13DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–DAL
DALQ1 15:001058Missed field goal0–0
CARQ1 9:41734Punt0–0
DALQ1 5:57526Punt0–0
CARQ1 2:53417Punt0–0
DALQ1 0:29946Punt0–0
CARQ2 10:29735Turnover0–0
DALQ2 7:26837Punt0–0
CARQ2 2:48890Touchdown7–0
DALQ2 1:03425Punt7–0
CARQ2 0:0500End of half7–0
CARQ3 15:0037Punt7–0
DALQ3 13:25558Field goal7–3
CARQ3 9:5336Punt7–3
DALQ3 7:44558Touchdown7–10
CARQ3 5:01419Punt7–10
DALQ3 3:201378Field goal7–13
CARQ4 12:0234Punt7–13
DALQ4 10:29752Punt7–13
CARQ4 5:57312Opp touchdown7–21
CARQ4 5:071148Turnover7–21
DALQ4 1:00213End of half7–21

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme22/3322012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams11645.80
Jake Delhomme2105.00
Jonathan Stewart3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dante Rosario35581
Muhsin Muhammad69510
Steve Smith47380
Kenny Moore22190
Jeff King22170
Jonathan Stewart22170
DeAngelo Williams22100
Dwayne Jarrett11100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo22/3325500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Felix Jones89411.80
Tashard Choice18824.61
Tony Romo5224.40
Patrick Crayton11414.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten99770
Roy Williams47750
Patrick Crayton34440
Tashard Choice47360
Felix Jones11200
Martellus Bennett1330
Miles Austin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.3%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.07