Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
41
Model margin
+2.0est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.062EPA / play-0.086
- 43.2%Success rate37.6%
- -0.069EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.052EPA / rush-0.118
- 6.8%Explosive rate9.1%
- +4.14CPOE-5.37
- 38.7%Third-down rate32.7%
- 64.6%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 1.41Points / drive1.35
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. TEN are 19-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sage Rosenfels | 18/25 | 186 | 3 | 1 |
| David Carr | 15/21 | 113 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wali Lundy | 18 | 116 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| David Carr | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jameel Cook | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 7/15 | 87 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 4 | 44 | 11.0 | 1 |
| LenDale White | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 15 | 29 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Brandon Jones | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.96