Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
40
Model margin
+1.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.153EPA / play-0.045
- 51.4%Success rate40.7%
- +0.294EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.028
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.8%
- +4.70CPOE-2.37
- 56.7%Third-down rate37.1%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 2.54Points / drive1.52
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 14–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. DEN are 6-14 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 42 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 12:24 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 9:53 | 15 | 76 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q1 1:45 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| IND | Q2 11:16 | 10 | 60 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| DEN | Q2 5:10 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 6–14 |
| IND | Q2 0:22 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–14 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 6–14 |
| IND | Q3 13:58 | 6 | 56 | Touchdown | 13–14 |
| DEN | Q3 12:04 | 3 | -3 | Turnover | 13–14 |
| IND | Q3 10:16 | 3 | 12 | Touchdown | 20–14 |
| DEN | Q3 8:54 | 14 | 91 | Touchdown | 20–21 |
| IND | Q4 15:00 | 7 | 50 | Field goal | 23–21 |
| DEN | Q4 11:37 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 23–28 |
| IND | Q4 6:54 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 31–28 |
| DEN | Q4 3:35 | 4 | 49 | Field goal | 31–31 |
| IND | Q4 1:49 | 7 | 62 | Field goal | 34–31 |
| DEN | Q4 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 34–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 32/39 | 345 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 17 | 93 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 13/21 | 174 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Bell | 15 | 136 | 9.1 | 2 |
| Cecil Sapp | 2 | 39 | 19.5 | 0 |
| Tatum Bell | 13 | 27 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Tony Scheffler | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.75