Closing spread
CLE -1
Total
37
Model margin
-0.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play-0.197
- 43.0%Success rate38.3%
- +0.057EPA / dropback-0.178
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.231
- 6.5%Explosive rate6.4%
- +2.38CPOE+3.75
- 44.6%Third-down rate34.0%
- 49.8%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
- 1.74Points / drive1.01
- 2.3%Turnover rate4.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CLE are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 11/28 | 108 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Washington | 15 | 51 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Frye | 15/22 | 141 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 33 | 125 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Charlie Frye | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.0%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.33
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.76