2018 · Week 3

Final

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

17·21

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tyrod Taylor

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

CLE -3

Total

41

Model margin

+1.7est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.130EPA / play-0.009
  • 37.1%Success rate42.8%
  • -0.087EPA / dropback+0.037
  • -0.196EPA / rush-0.091
  • 8.2%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -5.42CPOE-0.95
  • 32.2%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 49.6%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.75
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 10–6 since 1999

NYJ have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.5 points. CLE are 6-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CLE @ NYJ12–17NYJ
2025 · W10CLE @ NYJ20–27NYJ
2023 · W17NYJ @ CLE20–37CLE
2022 · W2NYJ @ CLE31–30NYJ
2020 · W16CLE @ NYJ16–23NYJ
2019 · W2CLE @ NYJ23–3CLE
2017 · W5NYJ @ CLE17–14NYJ
2016 · W8NYJ @ CLE31–28NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–CLE
CLEQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
NYJQ1 14:053-4Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:24626Punt0–0
NYJQ1 10:4233Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:113-2Punt0–0
NYJQ1 7:18515Punt0–0
CLEQ1 4:32425Punt0–0
NYJQ1 2:13528Touchdown7–0
CLEQ2 14:563-5Punt7–0
NYJQ2 13:311063Touchdown14–0
CLEQ2 7:541228Punt14–0
NYJQ2 2:453-3Punt14–0
CLEQ2 1:42539Field goal14–3
NYJQ2 0:2337Punt14–3
CLEQ2 0:0500End of half14–3
NYJQ3 15:00613Punt14–3
CLEQ3 12:25950Punt14–3
NYJQ3 7:35224Turnover14–3
CLEQ3 6:1930Field goal14–6
NYJQ3 5:21417Punt14–6
CLEQ3 3:31869Touchdown14–14
NYJQ3 0:421165Field goal17–14
CLEQ4 8:561585Touchdown17–21
NYJQ4 2:04517Turnover17–21
CLEQ4 1:2138Punt17–21
NYJQ4 0:56323Turnover17–21
CLEQ4 0:1100End of half17–21

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold15/3116902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell14735.20
Isaiah Crowell16342.12

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quincy Enunwa48570
Jermaine Kearse36350
Terrelle Pryor13250
Robbie Chosen24220
Isaiah Crowell23170
Eric Tomlinson12140
Bilal Powell0100
Jordan Leggett0100
Chris Herndon22-10

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield17/2320100
Tyrod Taylor4/141900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde23984.32
Tyrod Taylor4225.50
Duke Johnson294.50
Nick Chubb263.00
Baker Mayfield2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry8141030
David Njoku22360
Rashard Higgins33320
Duke Johnson22240
Antonio Callaway411200
Carlos Hyde2250
Orson Charles0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.7%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.23
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.72