Closing spread
CLE -3
Total
41
Model margin
+1.7est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.130EPA / play-0.009
- 37.1%Success rate42.8%
- -0.087EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.196EPA / rush-0.091
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.4%
- -5.42CPOE-0.95
- 32.2%Third-down rate35.9%
- 49.6%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 1.47Points / drive1.75
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CLE are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 15/31 | 169 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 14 | 73 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 16 | 34 | 2.1 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Enunwa | 4 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 1 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Leggett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Herndon | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 17/23 | 201 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 4/14 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 23 | 98 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 8 | 14 | 103 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Antonio Callaway | 4 | 11 | 20 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Orson Charles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.20
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-3.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.72