2017 · Week 5

Final

Jets

New York

QB Josh McCown

17·14

Browns

Cleveland

QB DeShone Kizer

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NYJ -1.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.073EPA / play-0.146
  • 38.5%Success rate38.4%
  • -0.000EPA / dropback-0.169
  • -0.181EPA / rush-0.096
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +0.98CPOE-5.42
  • 36.0%Third-down rate33.6%
  • 57.7%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.07
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 10–6 since 1999

NYJ have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.5 points. CLE are 6-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CLE @ NYJ12–17NYJ
2025 · W10CLE @ NYJ20–27NYJ
2023 · W17NYJ @ CLE20–37CLE
2022 · W2NYJ @ CLE31–30NYJ
2020 · W16CLE @ NYJ16–23NYJ
2019 · W2CLE @ NYJ23–3CLE
2018 · W3NYJ @ CLE17–21CLE
2016 · W8NYJ @ CLE31–28NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–CLE
NYJQ1 15:003-3Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:553-3Punt0–0
NYJQ1 10:5447Punt0–0
CLEQ1 8:001464Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 1:161027Punt0–0
CLEQ2 13:27760Missed field goal0–0
NYJQ2 10:0036Turnover0–0
CLEQ2 8:371135Turnover0–0
NYJQ2 3:133-2Punt0–0
CLEQ2 1:42719Missed field goal0–0
NYJQ2 0:31532Field goal3–0
CLEQ3 15:001170Touchdown3–7
NYJQ3 9:23623Punt3–7
CLEQ3 5:5021Turnover3–7
NYJQ3 4:58213Touchdown10–7
CLEQ3 4:171282Turnover on downs10–7
NYJQ4 12:56897Touchdown17–7
CLEQ4 8:3045Punt17–7
NYJQ4 7:15615Punt17–7
CLEQ4 3:23586Touchdown17–14
NYJQ4 1:4900End of half17–14

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown23/3019421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Elijah McGuire11201.80
ArDarius Stewart2126.00
Bilal Powell252.50
Josh McCown3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Kerley44390
Jermaine Kearse44381
Eric Tomlinson11340
Austin Seferian-Jenkins68291
Bilal Powell45280
Robbie Chosen25160
Elijah McGuire23100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kevin Hogan16/1919421
DeShone Kizer8/178701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell16603.80
Kevin Hogan4307.50
DeShone Kizer6294.80
Duke Johnson6203.30
David Njoku111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ricardo Louis58710
Duke Johnson33631
David Njoku33481
Kasen Williams45330
Bryce Treggs26280
Seth DeValve34240
Isaiah Crowell2370
Rashard Higgins2470

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.6%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.32