Closing spread
NYJ -1.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play-0.146
- 38.5%Success rate38.4%
- -0.000EPA / dropback-0.169
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.096
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.9%
- +0.98CPOE-5.42
- 36.0%Third-down rate33.6%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
- 1.51Points / drive1.07
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CLE are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 23/30 | 194 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah McGuire | 11 | 20 | 1.8 | 0 |
| ArDarius Stewart | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Kerley | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 4 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 6 | 8 | 29 | 1 |
| Bilal Powell | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Hogan | 16/19 | 194 | 2 | 1 |
| DeShone Kizer | 8/17 | 87 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 16 | 60 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kevin Hogan | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| DeShone Kizer | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Louis | 5 | 8 | 71 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 3 | 3 | 63 | 1 |
| David Njoku | 3 | 3 | 48 | 1 |
| Kasen Williams | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Bryce Treggs | 2 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.42
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.32