Closing spread
CLE -1.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
-3.7est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.176EPA / play-0.129
- 35.2%Success rate40.5%
- -0.212EPA / dropback-0.137
- -0.115EPA / rush-0.117
- 6.1%Explosive rate6.5%
- -5.66CPOE-4.21
- 33.8%Third-down rate35.0%
- 48.2%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 1.18Points / drive1.54
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. NYJ are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Gabriel | 17/32 | 167 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinshon Judkins | 22 | 75 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Dillon Gabriel | 5 | 54 | 10.8 | 0 |
| Malachi Corley | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Dylan Sampson | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 12 | 78 | 1 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 4 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 |
| Cedric Tillman | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Dylan Sampson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamari Thrash | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Malachi Corley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 6/11 | 54 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 21 | 83 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Arian Smith | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 1 | 1 | 42 | 1 |
| Isaiah Williams | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Mason Taylor | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.2%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.44
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.96
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.70