2025 · Week 10

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Dillon Gabriel

20·27

Jets

New York

QB Tyrod Taylor

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 62°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

CLE -1.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

-3.7est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapJets
  • -0.176EPA / play-0.129
  • 35.2%Success rate40.5%
  • -0.212EPA / dropback-0.137
  • -0.115EPA / rush-0.117
  • 6.1%Explosive rate6.5%
  • -5.66CPOE-4.21
  • 33.8%Third-down rate35.0%
  • 48.2%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
  • 1.18Points / drive1.54
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 10–6 since 1999

NYJ have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.5 points. NYJ are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CLE @ NYJ12–17NYJ
2023 · W17NYJ @ CLE20–37CLE
2022 · W2NYJ @ CLE31–30NYJ
2020 · W16CLE @ NYJ16–23NYJ
2019 · W2CLE @ NYJ23–3CLE
2018 · W3NYJ @ CLE17–21CLE
2017 · W5NYJ @ CLE17–14NYJ
2016 · W8NYJ @ CLE31–28NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–NYJ
CLEQ1 15:0042Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:3232Punt0–0
CLEQ1 11:361061Touchdown7–6
NYJQ1 6:3400Touchdown7–7
CLEQ1 6:2130Opp touchdown7–14
CLEQ1 5:45624Punt7–14
NYJQ1 1:44311Punt7–14
CLEQ1 0:121012Punt7–14
NYJQ2 10:5010Turnover13–14
CLEQ2 10:41122Touchdown14–14
NYJQ2 10:341056Field goal14–17
CLEQ2 3:5151Punt14–17
NYJQ2 1:393-7Punt14–17
CLEQ2 0:45634Field goal17–17
NYJQ3 15:003-3Punt17–17
CLEQ3 13:24943Punt17–17
NYJQ3 7:5537Punt17–17
CLEQ3 6:2435Punt17–17
NYJQ3 3:35858Touchdown17–24
CLEQ4 14:12726Turnover on downs17–24
NYJQ4 10:15636Field goal17–27
CLEQ4 6:13948Field goal20–27
NYJQ4 2:57711End of half20–27

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dillon Gabriel17/3216720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Quinshon Judkins22753.40
Dillon Gabriel55410.80
Malachi Corley23216.00
Jerome Ford111.00
Dylan Sampson2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy612781
Harold Fannin Jr.47440
David Njoku22211
Cedric Tillman24110
Quinshon Judkins23100
Dylan Sampson1130
Jerome Ford0100
Jamari Thrash0100
Malachi Corley0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields6/115411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall21834.00
Justin Fields7284.00
Arian Smith11313.00
Isaiah Davis3103.30
John Metchie III1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Breece Hall11421
Isaiah Williams1140
Mason Taylor1240
John Metchie III1130
Isaiah Davis1110
Tyler Johnson0100
Garrett Wilson0300
Jeremy Ruckert1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.52.8%3.1%4.8%3.2%7.5%6.7%3.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.2%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.44
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.96
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.70