2020 · Week 16

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

16·23

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 37°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CLE -6.5

Total

45

Model margin

-1.1est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapJets
  • +0.091EPA / play-0.116
  • 46.9%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.193EPA / dropback-0.098
  • -0.034EPA / rush-0.146
  • 11.2%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +2.55CPOE-2.07
  • 45.5%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 71.8%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
  • 2.32Points / drive1.24
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 10–6 since 1999

NYJ have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.5 points. NYJ are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CLE @ NYJ12–17NYJ
2025 · W10CLE @ NYJ20–27NYJ
2023 · W17NYJ @ CLE20–37CLE
2022 · W2NYJ @ CLE31–30NYJ
2019 · W2CLE @ NYJ23–3CLE
2018 · W3NYJ @ CLE17–21CLE
2017 · W5NYJ @ CLE17–14NYJ
2016 · W8NYJ @ CLE31–28NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–NYJ
CLEQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
NYJQ1 14:0336Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:19839Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 9:26728Punt3–0
CLEQ1 4:5937Punt3–0
NYJQ1 2:53566Touchdown3–7
CLEQ1 0:3427Turnover3–7
NYJQ2 14:54430Touchdown3–13
CLEQ2 13:33916Punt3–13
NYJQ2 8:26737Punt3–13
CLEQ2 5:0552Punt3–13
NYJQ2 2:20511Punt3–13
CLEQ2 0:44527Missed field goal3–13
NYJQ3 15:00875Touchdown3–20
CLEQ3 10:26416Punt3–20
NYJQ3 8:28716Missed field goal3–20
CLEQ3 5:411058Touchdown10–20
NYJQ3 2:5639Punt10–20
CLEQ3 1:211372Touchdown16–20
NYJQ4 12:38836Punt16–20
CLEQ4 7:2568Punt16–20
NYJQ4 6:16616Punt16–20
CLEQ4 4:053-2Turnover16–20
NYJQ4 3:1436Field goal16–23
CLEQ4 2:52844Turnover on downs16–23
NYJQ4 1:1800End of half16–23

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield28/5328500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb11282.51
Kareem Hunt4112.81
Baker Mayfield362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Hooper715710
Ja'Marcus Bradley511600
Kareem Hunt35410
Nick Chubb55380
Harrison Bryant37370
David Njoku44260
Marvin Hall12120

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold16/3217520
Jamison Crowder1/14310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore14483.40
La'Mical Perine9303.30
Sam Darnold7202.90
Jamison Crowder11414.00
Ty Johnson2136.50
Breshad Perriman166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamison Crowder79921
Braxton Berrios33601
Chris Herndon44341
La'Mical Perine12140
Daniel Brown11130
Frank Gore1150
Breshad Perriman0600
Denzel Mims0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

3.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.2%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.76
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.06