Closing spread
CLE -6.5
Total
45
Model margin
-1.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play-0.116
- 46.9%Success rate40.9%
- +0.193EPA / dropback-0.098
- -0.034EPA / rush-0.146
- 11.2%Explosive rate7.4%
- +2.55CPOE-2.07
- 45.5%Third-down rate34.4%
- 71.8%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
- 2.32Points / drive1.24
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. NYJ are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 28/53 | 285 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hooper | 7 | 15 | 71 | 0 |
| Ja'Marcus Bradley | 5 | 11 | 60 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 5 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 3 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 16/32 | 175 | 2 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1/1 | 43 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 0 |
| La'Mical Perine | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 7 | 9 | 92 | 1 |
| Braxton Berrios | 3 | 3 | 60 | 1 |
| Chris Herndon | 4 | 4 | 34 | 1 |
| La'Mical Perine | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Daniel Brown | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Mims | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.2%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.76
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.06