2022 · Week 2

Final

Jets

New York

QB Joe Flacco

31·30

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jacoby Brissett

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

CLE -6.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.086EPA / play+0.013
  • 39.1%Success rate44.1%
  • -0.081EPA / dropback+0.021
  • -0.093EPA / rush+0.002
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -4.97CPOE+1.05
  • 34.3%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 39.8%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
  • 1.41Points / drive1.91
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 10–6 since 1999

NYJ have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.5 points. CLE are 6-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CLE @ NYJ12–17NYJ
2025 · W10CLE @ NYJ20–27NYJ
2023 · W17NYJ @ CLE20–37CLE
2020 · W16CLE @ NYJ16–23NYJ
2019 · W2CLE @ NYJ23–3CLE
2018 · W3NYJ @ CLE17–21CLE
2017 · W5NYJ @ CLE17–14NYJ
2016 · W8NYJ @ CLE31–28NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–CLE
NYJQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:321490Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 4:551475Touchdown7–7
CLEQ2 13:061061Touchdown7–14
NYJQ2 8:17840Turnover7–14
CLEQ2 3:2447Punt7–14
NYJQ2 1:05854Touchdown14–14
CLEQ2 0:1100End of half14–14
CLEQ3 15:001069Field goal14–17
NYJQ3 9:58922Punt14–17
CLEQ3 6:01422Punt14–17
NYJQ3 4:041171Field goal17–17
CLEQ4 14:191075Touchdown17–24
NYJQ4 9:2136Punt17–24
CLEQ4 7:37619Punt17–24
NYJQ4 4:0733Punt17–24
CLEQ4 2:30642Touchdown17–30
NYJQ4 1:55275Touchdown24–30
CLEQ4 1:2200Touchdown24–30
NYJQ4 1:20948Touchdown31–30
CLEQ4 0:22221Turnover31–30
NYJQ4 0:0600End of half31–30

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco26/4430740

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall7507.10
Michael Carter7233.30
Braxton Berrios22211.00
Joe Flacco263.00
Garrett Wilson1-2-2.00
Elijah Moore1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson8141022
Corey Davis24831
Elijah Moore35410
Tyler Conklin69400
Michael Carter55270
Jeff Smith11170
Breece Hall11101
Ty Johnson1340
Jeremy Ruckert0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett22/2722911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb17875.13
Kareem Hunt13584.50
Jacoby Brissett6437.20
Demetric Felton1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper9101011
Harrison Bryant34450
David Njoku35320
Nick Chubb33260
Kareem Hunt22160
David Bell1160
Demetric Felton1130
Donovan Peoples-Jones0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

4.77%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.7%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.12
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.83