Closing spread
CLE -6.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.086EPA / play+0.013
- 39.1%Success rate44.1%
- -0.081EPA / dropback+0.021
- -0.093EPA / rush+0.002
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.8%
- -4.97CPOE+1.05
- 34.3%Third-down rate39.0%
- 39.8%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
- 1.41Points / drive1.91
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CLE are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 26/44 | 307 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 7 | 50 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 8 | 14 | 102 | 2 |
| Corey Davis | 2 | 4 | 83 | 1 |
| Elijah Moore | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 6 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 5 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Jeff Smith | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 22/27 | 229 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 17 | 87 | 5.1 | 3 |
| Kareem Hunt | 13 | 58 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Demetric Felton | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 9 | 10 | 101 | 1 |
| Harrison Bryant | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| David Bell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Demetric Felton | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
4.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.24
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.12
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.83